Burnley vs Arsenal | Saturday 6th March 2021, 12:30 | BT Sport
The first game of the Premier League weekend sees Burnley take on Arsenal at Turf Moor, with Sean Dyche’s men looking to make it back-to-back wins against the Gunners this season.
Dyche, in my opinion, has done wonders with his team yet again on a shoestring budget. In the summer, their top signing was Dale Stephens, costing £1.1 m (their only spend of the window).
After a shaky start to the season, only picking up 2 points from their first 7 league games, the Clarets sit 6 points away from safety in 15th and it would be a surprise to see them not enjoy Premier League football again next season.
The Clarets recent form has seen them only lose 1 of their last 6 games but drawing on 4 of those occasions.
It has been an inconsistent season for the Gunners in Mikel Arteta’s first full season at the club currently sitting in 10th. Arsenal do however come to Lancashire on a high after beating top 4 rivals Leicester at the King Power and qualifying for the next stage of the Europa league against Benfica.
Their victory against Leicester was particularly impressive in a game they came from behind in which was a much-rotated team from their Europa league clash.
The betting angles
In the outright markets Burnley are generally 9/2 with the draw at 3/1 and Arsenal 8/13.
Looking at the prices, Arsenal look far to short for my liking with their inconsistencies this season and considering Burnley’s home form. The value in my opinion must be to get Burnley onside.
Burnley have drawn their last 4 home games and it is hard to argue that Dyche’s men would not be unhappy with a solitary point. Since November, Burnley have also only lost on their own patch to the two Manchester clubs and at a best priced 31/10 with SBK the draw takes appeal at the price on offer.
My next play comes in the player prop market involving Pierre Emerick Aubameyang (PEA) and a headed shot on target.
In his last two starts in the league, PEA has started as a central striker rather than out on the wing. His position certainly enhances the play proposed but I feel further stats are needed as the striker only has an average of 0.3 headed shots this season.
Burnley have had the most crosses against them (384 crosses in total at an average of 14 crosses against per game). Arsenal also rank third for crosses taken in the league being another positive towards the angle proposed.
Considering his likely central role and the number of crosses Arsenal are expected to have, (hopefully leading to more chances with his head) Betfair offer of 5/1 for PEA to have a headed shot on target looks to good to turn down.