THE Easter Sunday Premier League programme gets underay with Tottenham's trip to Burnley. Can Chris Graham (@chrisgraham79) nail the winner?
Burnley v Tottenham | Sunday 13:30 | Sky Sports 1
Saturday might just have been a significant day in the battle to stay in the Premier League. Leicester and QPR's wins have pushed all six sides closer together and the pressure on Sunderland , Hull and Aston Villa has increased. Can Burnley follow suit today?
For Tottenham, matters are a lot less pressing. Victory here would see them overtake Southampton and Liverpool in the table to hit the Top 5 but they'd be five points adrift of fourth place. It's a big ask to get into the Champions League in all honesty.
As someone who earlier in the week backed Burnley to finish bottom at huge 9/1 I'm trying to find ways of getting with Spurs. In their away matches against similar sides this season they've usually come out on top. Just.
One goal victories were achieved at Leicester, QPR, Hull and Aston Villa so the trends would suggest a narrow Spurs win here.
If Burnley stay up, it will be due to their home form this season. Four precious wins at Turf Moor have been fulfilled with two of those against top sides Manchester City and Southampton. Three home defeats in their last 11 is also something worthy of respect.
I'm fairly sure we'll see goals here but the Both Teams To Score price is too prohibitive at 13/20. Burnley have scored in 11 of their last 13 home games while Spurs have scored in all but one of their 2015 Premier League games.
I think there are better value bets than the 6/5 on Spurs. Indeed, if you feel Spurs may be affected by the international break (a number of their players were on duty) then the 45/17 on the draw with BetBright is a good price.
So if you came up to me and said you'd backed the draw I would have mucho respect for you, but having taking a firm stance against Burnley this week I feel it would be two-faced if I backed that.
Instead I'll get involved with the 3/1 with Bet365 that Tottenham win by exactly one goal. As mentioned above, they've done that at similar sides Leicester, QPR, Hull and Aston Villa this season.
Burnley v Tottenham – Tottenham to win by one goal (3/1 Bet365)
If you've not got a Betfair account you can back Spurs to win this game at a chunky 4/1. Keen?