CORRECT SCORE specialist Daniel McCulloch (@danmcc84) analyses Saturday's contest between Burnley and Tottenham.
Burnley v Tottenham | Saturday 23rd December 2017, 17:30 | BT Sport
Given that I have opposed Burnley twice in the last month or so, Clarets fans could be forgiven for thinking that I have some kind of agenda against their club. That is obviously not the case, but as I have written previously, I cannot see them remaining so close to the ‘Big Six’ when their performance data remains so poor.
That said, ordinarily I would say that Tottenham at a best-price of 14/25 are worth opposing at Turf Moor, given the Lancashire sides home record. However, the absence of James Tarkowski, who has been a tower of strength throughout this campaign, leads me to back the north London outfit.
Tarkowski has not missed a game this season and his partnership with Ben Mee has been so strong that it’s fair to say that Michael Keane’s absence has been barely felt. I think that Tottenham have caught a real break in facing during his suspension and think they can just about edge this game.
Maurichio Pochettino’s side have found this season far tougher than last and average 0.54 goals less per-game than they did in the 2016/17 season. It is therefore hard to see them scoring a hatful here and the 5/1 William Hill offer on a single goal victory for the away side seems more than fair to me.
Burnley have lost by this scoreline on three occasions this term and I feel like a fourth is fairly likely. Given Sean Dyche’s side ability to score precisely one goal – they have done so in nine of their 19 league games this season – I am also going to take the 15/2 with Bet365 than this game finishes one apiece.
Burnley games are so tight that this feels like a worthwhile saver and I wouldn’t rule out a late equaliser like they managed at Wembley earlier in the season. These two sides have six 1-1 draws between them in the league this term so I feel that this scoreline occurs more than 12% of the time.
Burnley v Tottenham – Burnley 0-1 Tottenham (5/1 William Hill)
Burnley v Tottenham – Burnley 1-1 Tottenham (15/2 Bet365)