Burnley v Man City: Clarets could be closer than odds suggest

PREMIER LEAGUE analyst Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) takes a look at Sunday's match at Turf Moor and looks to get the hosts onside

Burnley v Manchester City | Sunday 27th April 2019, 14:05

I surely can’t be the only person looking at this encounter and wondering why Burnley are as big as 20/1 and looking for some alternative ways to keep The Clarets on side? I understand that Sean Dyche’s side are now mathematically safe and that Manchester City need to win to ensure that they go back to the top of the table but statistically these odds make little sense.

Burnley have 28 points from their last 16 Premier League games. During that time they’ve faced four members of ‘The Big Six’, beating Tottenham, drawing 2-2 away to both Manchester United and Chelsea and losing 4-2 at Anfield.

Since the start of last season, Burnley’s record at home to members of ‘The Big Six’ has been pretty unimpressive, they’ve won just one of their 10 matches, drawing another and losing eight encounters. However, four of these defeats were by a single goal and just two of them were by three goals or more.

It’s for this reason that I have two angles of attack: Burnley +2.5 goals, which is available at 13/19 with BetVictor is the first. For all Manchester City’s achievements this season, they’ve only won by three goals or more in three of their 12 away games against sides from seventh down. Moreover, since Pep Guardiola took charge they’ve overcome this handicap against this opposition on just 12 times from 40 attempts. Our bet has therefore been successful 70% of the time and the odds suggest you only need it to be successful 59% of the time to break even. It’s for that reason, I think Burnley +2.5 goals is excellent value.

Additionally, as stated previously, four of Burnley’s last ten home games against members of ‘The Big Six’ have ended in single goal defeats so I have to feel that City to win by one goal is great value at 7/2 with Boylesports.