Burnley v Leicester: Flying Foxes to get back on track

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LEICESTER travel to Burnley on Super Sunday . Jack Lambden (@_JackL_) analyses the encounter.

Burnley v Leicester | Sunday 19th January 2020, 14:00 | Sky Sports

Leicester boss Brendan Rodgers will be hoping that eight days without a game will have given his squad sufficient rest to bounce back from last Saturday’s disappointing 2-1 home defeat to Southampton and record victory in the North West.

The Foxes’ haven’t played that badly in their recent defeats to Southampton, Manchester City and Liverpool but were simply beaten by the better team on the day, not even laying a glove on the Merseysiders. The nine goals conceded in those three games compared to just 12 in their own net in their other 19 Premier League matches combined, so a priority this weekend will be to earn an eight clean sheet of the season as well as picking up three valuable points.

Each of the last four weekend games for Leicester have followed on from a midweek match so a whole week on the training ground would have been welcome break for Rodgers who has only used 20 players in the Premier League season. Only Wolves have used less than that figure so it’s hardly surprising that the form of the Foxes dipped over a period of such congested fixtures.

One man who has come into the first XI recently is Hamza Choudhury and I think the young man could step up here and have a good game in filling the boots of the injured Wilfred Ndidi in the three in front of the back four.

On the theme of Leicester being well rested and potentially firing out the blocks here, the 21/10 price on the away side leading at Half-Time and Full-Time with Betfair appeals.

Burnley are now on a run of 10 consecutive league games without scoring a first half goal and they have been losing at the break and then at the end of the game in seven of their last nine matches at once-fortress Turf Moor so the stats and context certainly back this selection up.

Burnley’s form has been horrific of late and the team have slid from eighth in November to now hovering just three points above the relegation. The Clarets are without Ashley Barnes who has six goals this season and the striker’s all round play is integral to the way Burnley play so his absence is a blow.

It’s matches against top half sides that Burnley have particularly struggled in this and every other Premier League season, losing 10 out of 11 in 2019/20 against this season’s current top 10, picking up a solitary point against seventh-placed Wolves so Leicester will be confident of making it 11 in 12.  

On the prop markets, it’s always worth looking at Leicester’s full-back Ricardo Pereira on the tackles front. The Portuguese is averaging 4.6 tackles in his last six league games and a smidgen lower at 4.5 per-game away from home across the course of the season and with 40% of Burnley’s play coming down the left flank, the right-back could be called into action on a fair few occasions.

Charlie Taylor and Dwight McNeil are by far and away the best two dribblers in this Burnley squad if the stats are to go by so they will be trying to take on their counterpart one-on-one which could force the Leicester man into going to ground to win the ball back.

Pereira to have 4+ tackles at 15/8 is therefore my second and final selection which can be backed with Coral. This has landed in seven of 26 year-old’s 10 away games, with two of those games where didn’t land in being against Liverpool and Manchester City when Leicester hardly had a sniff so with this game being more competitive, I’m happy to have a dabble.

Best Bets

Burnley v Leicester – Leicester/Leicester (21/10 Betfair)

Burnley v Leicester – Ricardo Pereira 4+ tackles (15/8 Coral)

About Author

I've been betting on football since 2011, a year when I made a fair bit of money on Southampton to win each home game after a New Year's resolution to be more optimistic about my side’s chances. After 21 wins at St Mary’s out of 22, I’d built up a fair pot of money! I enjoy researching (almost!) as much as the winning, using a combination of stats, team news, context and general football knowledge to make my selections. Outside of football, you’ll find me down the pub enjoying a few pints or at a gig most likely if the girlfriend will allow it!

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