DANIEL MCCULLOCH (@DMcCulloch1984) shares his favourite fancies from Sunday's encounter from Turf Moor as Burnley host Arsenal.
Burnley v Arsenal | Sunday 2nd February 2020, 14:00 | Sky Sports
Given that Burnley are exactly the type of side I would expect Arsenal to struggle against, I was surprised to learn that The Clarets have lost their last 11 matches against the North London outfit, with 10 of those being under Sean Dyche’s stewardship.
That being said, head-to-head records are generally something I ignore. Club performance, players and management are so varied year-on-year and I’ve always thought the idea of a ‘bogey side’ was a load of nonsense.
A couple of weeks ago I thought Burnley were genuinely relegation candidates but two improbable victories against Leicester and Manchester United mean that the Lancashire side are six points clear of the bottom three and level with Sunday’s opponents.
Mikel Arteta’s first six weeks as Arsenal’s manager seem to be widely well received but I am not really sure why. Arsenal have gained seven points from his six games at the helm and I don’t think their schedule has been overly taxing. They’ve failed to win at home to Sheffield United as well as at Crystal Palace and Bournemouth and their only genuinely impressive performance came at home to Manchester United.
Arsenal have drawn four of their six matches under Arteta’s stewardship, with BTTS landing in five of the Spaniard’s games. Since the start of last season, 69% (43/62) of the North London sides encounters have seen such a bet land, and at 4/5 with Bet365, I am happy to make this my main bet.
Additionally, I like the look of the 1-1 scoreline at 13/2 with the same firm. It has obliged in three of Arsenal’s last six games. It has only occurred in two of Burnley’s 24 league matches but I think this is a scoreline that would actually suit both sides.
My final bet is to take the 11/2 – once again with Bet365 – on Chris Wood in the First Goalscorer market. The New Zealand has managed double figures in each of his three seasons with Burnley, with 10 goals in his 22 league games this season.
The Kiwi has been the First Goalscorer in five of those matches this season and given that you can get a third of the price in the each-way market (with unlimited places) I think this is an excellent bet. Simply put, I expect Wood to dominate the Arsenal backline and find the net.