MORE German top tier action to look forward to on Wednesday night. Mark O’Haire (@MarkOHaire) highlights the value.
Borussia Dortmund v FC Augsburg | Wednesday 19.00 | BT Sport 2
Hands up, last night’s Bundesliga advice went a bit Pete Tong. Distracted by the prices, I went a bit off-road and paid the price. It was an unusually quiet night on the goals from in Germany and whilst there were chances galore in the first-half at Frankfurt-Wolfsburg, you can’t legislate for wayward finishing and red cards (as in Munich).
Tonight I’m keeping things relatively simple. Dortmund continue their battle against relegation with a very winnable home fixture against surprise package Augsburg. It’s quite remarkable to see BVB coming into this game as 1/2 favourites despite propping up the German top table. But the truth is, they’re too good to go down and they WILL start to climb the table.
For all their early season trauma, Jurgen Klopp’s men remain one of Europe’s best. They’ve already proved that in the Champions League this season and despite dominating the majority of their domestic games, a catalogue of individual errors and a lack of consistency has cost them. There’s no major science behind it; Dortmund will turn the corner.
Only in 1971/72 have the Black and Yellows had fewer points at this stage of the season but it’s heartening to know they’re still racking up the second most shots on goal (behind Bayern) and conceding the third fewest (behind Bayern and Leverkusen). I’ll reiterate the point – they won't go down.
Klopp’s team are too short to consider in the Match Odds market but I do have faith in BVB taking maximum points from Signal Iduna Park on Wednesday night. They’ve a very reasonable W8-D3-L4 record in their last 15 games on home soil but I’m not going to envisage a classic.
The hosts have D2-L2 in their last four and recorded just one Bundesliga win in seven. They showed a major improvement in their defensive structure during Saturday’s 0-0 with Leverkusen and I think Klopp will be keen to keep his players focussed on the defensive side of the game, even more so than allowing his gluttony of attacking players to release the shackles.
It’s interesting to note that four of BVB’s last five games in front of their supporters have featured two goals or fewer whilst only once since September have Dortmund’s home matches produced four goals or more. So I’m going to tie the home win together with a low-scoring game. Boylesports have offered 6/5 on a Dortmund win and Under 3.5 Goals and I think that’s a fair very price.
Augsburg are in the midst of their best ever season. Markus Weinzierl’s men have recorded back-to-back wins to climb into fifth but they tend to do their best business at their SGL Arena home and struggle against Dortmund (W0-D2-L5 head-to-head).
The Fuggerstädter have bagged seven wins from nine on home soil but have been beaten in six of their nine away this season, scoring just five goals on their travels. And that low-scoring nature is translated in the Total Goals markets too; Augsburg have seen Under 2.5 Goals in 9/11 away now with only 2/16 road matches featuring four or more goals.
Hoffenheim v Werder Bremen | Wednesday 19.00
As already mentioned, Eintracht Frankfurt and Wolfsburg failed to produce the goals I expected last night but there was enough chances and opportunities to believe we were on the right lines. It was a decent watch and Wednesday night’s showdown between Hoffenheim and Werder Bremen has the potential to follow suit in the entertainment stakes and hopefully give us a goals-based bet too.
Firstly, fixtures between these two teams are traditionally high-scoring affairs. The 13 Bundesliga meetings have produced 48 goals (3.7 goals-per-game) with Both Teams Scoring in each of the last nine showdowns. Unsurprisingly, the bookmakers have chalked up a number of skinny prices in the obvious goals markets.
There’s no doubt Hoff are the more likely winners. They arrive on the back of a strong W8-D3-L2 record at the Rhein-Neckar-Arena and it directly contrasts with Bremen’s rotten W1-D2-L9 run on the road. But it’s worth noting, Bremen are Hoffenheim’s Bundesliga bogey team. The hosts have beaten the visitors just once in 14 now and that came five years ago.
New Bremen coach Viktor Skripnik has brought about a more defensively rounded side but his team continue to haemorrhage goals on their travels. Back-to-back victories are clouded by the fact they’ve shipped 29 in nine away games. But the hosts have also been struggling to keep the goals out lately, leaking 21 in their last nine.
So it’s goals we’re after. Over 3.5 Goals was first on my list and it’s a bet that’s won in 12/20 Hoffenheim home matches as well as seven of their last nine. It’s also proved a winning selection in four of Werder’s previous six outings with a whopping 13/14 of the visitors’ last away games also banking in the Over 2.5 Goals column.
But we can grab a bigger price backing Over 1.5 first-half goals (23/20 Coral) than taking Over 3.5 Goals. Hoffenheim scored 19 of their 30 goals in the first half – only Bayern Munich have scored as many times before half-time – and this selection has proved successful in six of their nine home league fixtures. It’s also proved profitable in seven of Bremen’s last eight away making it a statically better bet at a bigger price. I’m in!
*Remember, all Bundesliga matches are streamed live on Bet365*
Best Bets
Borussia Dortmund v FC Augsburg – Borussia Dortmund to win and Under 3.5 Goals (6/5 Boylesports)
Hoffenheim v Werder Bremen – Over 1.5 first-half goals (23/20 Coral)
Your View
Will you be trusting Dortmund to do the business on Wednesday night? What’s your best Bundesliga bet this midweek?
Let us know in the comments box below!
