NINE more games from the top tier in Germany to look forward to this weekend. Mark O’Haire (@MarkOHaire) has analysed the games and found three bets he fancies.
Werder Bremen v Augsburg | Saturday 14.30
Werder Bremen did the business for us last Sunday and there’s absolutely no reason why we shouldn’t put our faith back in the Green Islanders this weekend for the visit of Augsburg.
Bremen are the only Bundesliga side yet to drop a point in 2015 as they claimed their third successive win since the winter break. That’s their best start to the Rückrunde since the 2003/04 double-winning campaign with the victory over Leverkusen their fourth on the spin now.
It’s been a remarkable turnaround under new boss Viktor Skripnik. Werder’s U23 coach was given the reigns after Robin Dutt’s sacking and has transformed the fallen giants. In fact, the Green Islanders would be sitting in a Champions League qualifying spot, based on his 22-point haul from 11 games.
That Leverkusen win included another stunning Zlatko Junuzovic free-kick whilst Davie Selke popped up with another goal to keep the Bremen train rolling on. They’ve now taken 16 points from their past six games at the Weserstadion and I can't see that locomotive running out of fuel just yet.
Werder have netted at least twice in all of those six home games and might be able to call upon their returning top goalscorer Franco Di Santo for the visit of Augsburg too. So I’m surprised to see we can take 4/6 on Bremen +0.25 in the Asian Handicap market from BetVictor.
With this selection, we’ll get paid out if the hosts take all three points but also pocket half of our potential full payout should Skripnik’s charges take a point.
Augsburg have been hogging the headlines following their win at Dortmund and their incredible rise up the Bundesliga standings. The Bavarians have won seven of their last 10 and taken 10 points from a possible 12 in their last four. So of course, Markus Weinzierl's men deserve plenty of respect.
But last weekend they blew a 2-0 lead against Eintracht Frankfurt and very nearly ended up on the losing side. It was their first stalemate of the season but also represented the first time FCA had failed to close out a two-goal advantage in their Bundesliga history.
Away form remains a sticking patch too, for Augsburg. Their tally of six goals on their travels is the second fewest in the league and the Bavarians have already been beaten in six of their last 10 on the road.
The final nail for this bet came when checking the team news. Weinzierl is without his captain Paul Verhaegh whilst centre-half Jan-Ingwer Callsen-Bracker remains 50-50; take those two out and the unfashionable visitors look a little ropey in defence.
Eintracht Frankfurt v Schalke | Saturday 17.30 | BT Sport 1
Roberto Di Matteo continues to strengthen the Schalke foundations and the Royal Blues look a little overpriced at 10/11 with a +0.25 start on the Asian Handicap line for their trip to Eintracht Frankfurt on Saturday evening.
Like with Werder Bremen, backing this selection means we’ll bag a full payout should the away side take maximum points but if the fixture ends all square, we’ll still take half of that potential full payout and be in profit.
Frankfurt are very much an ‘all or nothing’ team and may find it difficult to breakdown a stubborn Schalke rearguard. Since Di Matteo took charge, the Royal Blues have yet to concede two goals in a game and have now W6-D2-L1 of their last nine after edging out Gladbach in last Friday night’s dour encounter.
For all their attacking intent, Eintracht are winless since the first weekend of December, have kept just two clean sheets this season and W1-D5-L3 in their nine games against sides in seventh and above.
Schalke certainly won’t give in easily and offer good value on the Asian Handicap line now that the defensive-minded 3-4-1-2 system is beginning to reap rewards. Klass-Jan Huntelaar’s absence is of course of concern, but they’ve enough quality in forward areas to cause problems.
What’s more, the visitors boast a strong head-to-head record against their hosts. Schalke have suffered just one defeat in their last 17 Bundesliga meetings with Frankfurt, dating back to October 2005. Those 17 showdowns have resulted in 10 wins for the Royal Blues and all we need is for Di Matteo's boys to avoid defeat to pinch some profit.
Hannover 96 v Paderborn | Sunday 16.30 | BT Sport 2
Sunday’s live Bundesliga offering on BT Sport features two teams with just one win in 19 games between them. Yes, neither side have particularly impressed in recent months so call me mad, call me stupid but I’ve found a bet I like. A lot.
Hannover are a side that enjoy their home comforts. Since 2011/12, the 96ers have collected 32/60 Bundesliga wins at their HDI-Arena base and I’m willing to invest my faith in Tayfun Korkut’s men this weekend. BetVictor's 20/23 is good enough to grab my attention as they bid for just a second league victory in 10.
Last weekend’s 2-1 loss at Hamburg was hard to take for Die Rotten. Star striker Joselu missed a penalty whilst both Hamburg’s goals came from huge deflections off defender Marcelo. Hannover put their hosts under huge pressure, got a goal back, fired in more shots than they have in any league game this season but just couldn’t find the equaliser their performance deserved.
The Lower Saxony club should return home pleased with their display but even more determined to end their recent winless record. As already mentioned, home form is impressive and their W5-D1-L3 return at the HDI-Arena this season involves playing teams in 13th and above. They’re yet to face-off against any of the league’s lesser lights at home.
Paderborn certainly fall into that category. Their fairtyale season is in grave danger. André Breitenreiter’s men have not tasted victory since the first weekend of November and have failed to score in their last four matches.
Since returning from the winter break, Paderborn have lost 5-0 and 3-0 before last weekend’s goalless draw at Koln. They gifted their hosts far too many first-half opportunities and showed little adventure until the second-half but a lack of cutting edge looks like it could cost them their Bundesliga status.
The minnows have scored just six goals on their travels and are conceding on average seven shots-on-target per match on their travels. Breitenreiter’s team are in desperate need of a pick-up but there are much easier venues to visit in Germany than Hannover and I just can’t see the plucky underdogs surviving, sadly.
Best Bets
Werder Bremen v Augsburg – Werder Bremen +0.25 Asian Handicap (4/6 BetVictor)
Eintracht Frankfurt v Schalke – Schalke +0.25 Asian Handicap (10/11 BetVictor)
Hannover 96 v Paderborn – Hannover to win (20/23 BetVictor)
*Remember, you can earn a bonus of up to 100% on your returns if you place accumulators on the Premier League, Serie A, La Liga or Bundesliga with Bet365. Place a pre-match accumulator of 3 or more selections combining teams in any of those competitions, and if successful Bet365 will add the a bonus to your returns.*
Your View
What's your best Bundesliga bet this weekend? Will Bayern Munich put the hammer into Hamburg? Will Bremen continue their great form?
We’d love to hear so let us know in the comments box below!
2 Comments
No Huntelaar for Schalke and they have only won 4% of away games without him. Might leave this one alone.
Not sure that’s correct, Kev? Since the start of last season their win rate falls from 59% in the 32 games the Dutchman has played to 45% otherwise and on the road it is 47% with Huntelaar compared to just 27% without.
The great bonus of a bet on the +0.25 Asian Handicap is, we make profit as long as they avoid defeat. And they’re well capable of that under Bobby Di Matteo.