CARDS specialist Chris Goodwin (@CGeorgeGamble) picks out his favourite bookings bets from Wednesday night's Bundesliga match-up between Werder Bremen and Eintracht Frankfurt.
Werder Bremen v Eintracht Frankfurt | Wednesday 3rd June 2020, 19:30 | BT Sport
A tight affair is expected on Wednesday evening as Eintracht Frankfurt travel to the Weser Stadium to take on struggling Werder Bremen.
Both sides saw important away wins this weekend as Werder came away with all three points against out of form Schalke, meanwhile Eintracht secured only their third away victory of the season against Europa League-chasing Wolfsburg.
This fixture sees the worst home record up against the worst away record but both still have plenty to play for, Die Werderaner are just three points from safety whilst Eintracht are six points away from the top half and a slight chance of a fight for a European qualifying place.
Key Stats
Werder Bremen:
- Commit on average 12.3 fouls per game at home.
- Receive on average 12.2 fouls per game at home.
- Failed to win their last 11 home matches.
- Leo Bittencourt and Milot Rashica have scored 11 of Werder’s 28 goals this season however both went off injured at the weekend – although their website states both could possibly feature.
- Have the worst home record in the division – only 1 win, have scored 9 and conceded 30.
- When playing teams from the bottom half, the opposition has seen 2+ cards 5/6 times.
- When playing teams from the bottom half, they have conceded at least 1 goal on 6/6 occasions.
- See the majority of possession when playing at home.
- Their home XG is 15.2 but have only scored 9.
- Their XG against at home is 17.83 but have shipped 30.
- Have failed to score in 6 of their last 7 home games.
Eintracht Frankfurt:
- Commit on average 11.5 fouls per game away from home.
- Receive on average 10.3 fouls per game away from home.
- Have seen over 2.5 goals land in their last 8 games.
- Have won the fewest points away from home in the league.
- Have received at least 1 card in 5/5 games away to teams in the bottom half.
- Their away XG is 18.42 but have only scored 15.
- Their XG against away is 23.22 but have shipped 31.
Analysis
Despite seeing the majority of possession when they play sides in the bottom half at home, Bremen struggle to finish the few chances that they do create. With star striker and top scorer Rashica currently enduring a baron spell having not scored in 13 matches, even if he does feature it’s difficult to see where the goals are going to come from.
Werder have also conceded to sides in the bottom half at home on 6/6 occasions. The hosts are extremely susceptible to attacks from the wings and this is where Eintracht thrive and see the majority of their attacks.
I expect Eintracht to attack down each flank on a consistent basis and look to get in behind to cross for in-form Andre Silva which should result in quite a few corners for the visitors – Eintracht average around 6.3 corners per game.
The Eagles have also won the fewest points away from home, despite their win at Wolfsburg on Saturday, but with Silva currently in form, scoring three goals in his last four, I’d expect Eintracht to at least get on the scoresheet. The two teams have met four times in the past two seasons and in those games Eintracht have scored twice on three occasions.
With Werder seeing the majority of possession I’d imagine Eintracht will hit fast on the break and down the wings, an area where the home side struggle to defend against, this will mean they’ll look to break up those counter attacks with some tough challenges and as such, referee permitting, they could easily pick up a couple of cards.
Best Bets
Werder Bremen v Eintracht Frankfurt – Eintracht Frankfurt to score 2+ Goals and win 6+ Corners (9/2 Betfair)
Werder Bremen v Eintracht Frankfurt – Eintracht Frankfurt to score 1+ Goal; win 5+ Corners and Werder Bremen 2+ Cards (21/10 Betfair)
Werder Bremen v Eintracht Frankfurt – Under 3 Werder Bremen Goals; Over 3 Eintracht Frankfurt Corners; Eintracht Frankfurt to score; Over 11.5 Free Kicks for Eintracht Frankfurt and Eintracht Frankfurt to collect Over 0 Cards (TBC Bet365)
