THE BUNDESLIGA is back and here Jack Lambden (@_JackL_) shares his favourite player and team props-based plays from matchday 29.
Schalke v Werder Bremen | Saturday 30th May 2020, 14:30 | BT Sport
Werder Bremen make the trip south to Gelsenkirchen in renewed spirits after earning four unlikely points from their last two matches, giving them some hope in the club’s battle against the drop.
There’s a sense that now instrumental midfielder Davy Klassen has returned from injury, the whole team is playing with more composure both in and out of possession and back-to-back clean sheets demonstrate that. In fact, Bremen even looked as if they could have nicked Tuesday’s 0-0 draw with Gladbach with Yann Sommer in the opposition goal looking shaky throughout.
Klassen has slotted back in on the left side of the central midfield three and is supporting the team’s best creative talent just in front of him – Milot Rashica. Most of The River Islanders’ good moments in the draw came down the left wing which is not surprising given the two players’ talent and I think we’ll see a repeat here.
Gladbach’s right wing-back in midweek – Stefan Lainer – registered 5 tackles over 90 minutes so it’s natural to look to the man who will likely play here for Schalke to get stuck in too. That’s on-loan Everton man Jonjoe Kenny who has racked up 11 successful tackles in his last four appearances and has been lucky to escape a couple of times without a booking.
Going one-on-one with Rashica will be tough and given Schalke’s current run of form, Kenny will want to avoid the Kosovan getting past him with his superb dribbling skills so will need to make his mark to stop him.
On the opposite flank, there’s also an intriguing battle brewing. A massive 46% of Schalke’s (albeit limited) play against Dusseldorf came down the left wing and it resulted in an assist for left-back Bastian Oczipka, five tackles for Dusseldorf right wing-back Matthias Zimmermann as well as 3 for right sided centre-back Kaan Ayhan.
Indeed, if we go back to the reverse fixture in November, Bremen’s mainstay right-back Theodor Gebre Selassie made three successful tackles in a game that saw a whopping 50 in total shared between the two teams.
The data is certainly on our side for a tackle heavy game here (112 shared by these two teams in their last three Bundesliga games) and in focusing on Gebre Selassie and Kenny, I’m going to combine 2+ tackles for each into a double priced at 8/5 with Ladbrokes.
Wolfsburg v Eintracht Frankfurt | Saturday 30th May 2020, 14:30 | BT Sport
Wolfsburg’s tremendous 4-1 victory at Bayer Leverkusen in midweek was very much deserved and just rewards for a brave approach adopted by manager Oliver Glasner.
Scoring four in any away game is impressive but doing so against such an in-form side was one of the standout performances of the Bundesliga season. A highlight of the match was the number of efforts on goal The Wolves managed – 14 in total – 64% of which hit the target.
Midfielder Max Arnold accounted for two of those 9 shots on target with wonderful display so to see 11/10 with Betfair for the German to register just one in this fixture is something I want to take advantage of.
The bet is considerably shorter with other bookies and understandably so when recognising the attacking role that Arnold has in the 4-4-2 system Glasner has switched to, as well as the fact that he often takes free-kicks in dangerous positions – one of which led to Arnold finding the net on Tuesday.
Arnold has averaged two shots per 90 minutes in the 2019/20 Bundesliga season and coming up against a team that has conceded 18 goals in their last five fixtures, the 26 year-old will be confident that his direct nature of continually playing the ball forward will pay off and test Frankfurt goalkeeper Kevin Trapp.
Trapp has had to deal with 23 shots on-target since the restart as his defence repeatedly fail to protect him and if Arnold is given opportunities to drive into space or free-kicks around the box, he won’t be afraid to pull the trigger.