NFL Tips | Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots | 24th November 2015 | SS1


LOUIS Ross (@LouisRoss67) steps into the hot-seat for the Monday night NFL match.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots | Tuesday 01:30 | Sky Sports 1

The Guru himself Tom Selwyn is not getting involved on Monday night game as it's a Pats game and I have been drafted in as his emergency back-up. Matt Cassel to his Tom Brady.

Cheers Tom. You have left me with a really difficult one to call. Especially given my mantra of ‘Never bet against the Patriots'. Well I am not exactly going to do that, but I am going to go with a couple of Bills based bets.

I do think New England will win this game. Tom Brady always seems to find a way. However, like a lot of favourites in the last three weeks they may end up doing so without covering the spread.

There are some good reasons for going this way and most concern New England themselves. Certainly the defence and especially the secondary are looking fairly banged up.

The loss of Julian Edelman at the end of the first quarter in New Jersey was a huge blow. Edelman is out for the season and that is a huge blow to the way NE move the ball downfield. No doubt Brady and Bil Bellichick will use Danny Amendola again.

Dieon Lewis was playing a huge part until his own serious injury. Those two absentees severely limit what Brady can do with the screens that they love setting up. LeGarret Blount may find himself carrying the ball 25 times or so but in truth even the most knowledgeable of us can never really predict what the Pats may do with the ball.

The 27-26 win over the Giants included three sacks and a couple of fumbles. That was against a defence ranked 31 of 32. The Bills are far better than that. I am happy to side with the Bills here at +7. They can push New England all the way.

Karlos Williams went for a combined 51 yards in the Bills win over the Jets, including a 26 yard TD catch. Bet Victor have a combined Rushing and Receiving total of 51.5 and I think that is a line he can pass easily. LeSean McCoy will undoubtedly get the majority of the carries but look for Williams on screens and down near the goalline.

Best Bets

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots – Buffalo Bills +7 (20/21 Bet365)

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots – Karlos Williams Over 51.5 combined yards (10/11 Bet Victor)

About Author

I have been interested in betting since a stint managing a bookmakers 20 years ago. I now work in the travel industry but spend 90% of my day thinking (and talking)about sport. Rarely missing an Arsenal home game, I still find time for my 25 year obsession with the NFL and the Chicago Bears in particular. I'm still stuck in the 80's and can't find anything better to listen to than The Jam or The Smiths. I am a stats junkie where the NFL is concerned and there is no sport in the world where they matter more. My mission is to convert you all to a wonderful sport. Oh and win a few quid along the way.

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