VALUE-HUNTER Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) shares his best bets from Wednesday night's showdown at The Amex.
Brighton vs Wolves | Wednesday 15th December 2021, 19:45 | BT Sport
With COVID cases at the highest level they’ve been in the Premier League, finding value is difficult unless you have the inside info as to which clubs and players are most effected.
We know Brighton have a few with COVID and they also have a lengthy injury list, so while the 6/4 on a home win initially looked tempting, it isn’t big enough to tempt me, especially in light of their recent struggles in front of goal.
The Seagulls have just three goals in their last five matches and while performance data suggests they should have scored a couple more, the stats aren’t overwhelmingly favourable.
Wolves have had similar issues in front of goal, failing to net in their last four, which included matches against Norwich and Burnley.
BTTS has landed in eight of Brighton’s 15 Premier League matches this term, but just four of Wolves’ 16. That’s a combined 19 of 31 failing to see both sides net, which makes the 40/71 BetVictor are offering on BTTS No look like excellent value.
For the more cautious among you, I wouldn’t put you off keeping 1-1 as a savour as this has landed in four of Brighton’s league games already this term but I will not consider it as an outright tip.
Elsewhere, I was interested to note that referee Tony Harrington is making his refereeing debut at this level. While he is experienced at Championship level (170 appearances to his name), I hope the glitz of the Premier League increases his card tally slightly. He averages just over three cards per game at Championship level, which is pretty much average.
There were a few Brighton considerations that I looked at but have ultimately settled with Joel Veltman. The dutchman has four yellow cards in 12 Premier League matches this term and is Brighton’s most prolific fouler, with 16 already this season.
Veltman is likely to be up against Adama Traore on occasions (Traore may play a more central role with Raul Jimenez out for Wolves) and is a frequent enough card taker anyway to suggest that 7/2 on him receiving a card is good value. That is available with Bet365.