ALEX JONES (@AlexJ0nes9) analyses the odds as Brighton take on West Brom in the Premier League on Monday evening.
Brighton vs West Brom | Monday 26th October 2020, 17:30 | Sky Sports Box Office
Monday evening’s first Premier League encounter sees West Brom travel to the south cost to take on a Brighton team who have started the season slowly results-wise.
Both these teams make up two of the bottom five sides in the division with the duo losing three of their five games thus far, although Brighton games are seeing a chunky average of four goals per-game.
The two teams played out low-scoring draws last time out. West Brom earned a point at The Hawthorns as they came unstuck against a gritty Burnley defence, whilst Brighton had to react from conceding an early penalty at Crystal Palace to snatch a last-minute draw.
It was a dramatic ending at Selhurst Park for that one, with captain Lewis Dunk being sent off just moments after Alexis Mac Allister levelled the scores. That means Brighton will be without their main defender for this encounter, with West Brom likely to name an unchanged XI in this match after a solid performance.
Brighton’s recent home record is awful on paper. They have conceded three or more goals in five of their last six at The Amex. However, dive deeper into this data and their opponents in these five games have all been a so called Big Six.
West Brom come visiting boasting an average of just eight shots per-game in the Premier League, recording six and five shots in their only away games. I admit this is an incredibly small sample size, but it makes for bleak reading and there are little signs they are going to let loose and attack freely this season.
Slaven Bilic is setting the Baggies up from the back and to be fair, they are clinical when the chances fall. Recently, they notched three goals past Chelsea despite only three attempts on-target.
In contrast, Brighton have been firing the shots of late, perhaps due to game situations more than anything. They have had the third highest average in the division with 15 shots at goal per-game, conceding only seven on average. That is a very strong ratio.
Brighton to come out on top
I will be backing Brighton to win here but not at the price given on the 1×2 market. The 3/4 quotes are a bit short for me so I will bump the odds up and instead play: Brighton to win, Over 1 Brighton Goal and Over 3 Brighton Corners. This gives us a lovely price with Bet365 at 6/4.
Firstly, I’m expecting Brighton to win this one and get their first home win of the season. This is just as much about opposing West Brom as it is backing Graham Potter’s men.
Albion have taken four corners in four of their five games so far this season, only failing away to Newcastle. They have faced Chelsea, Manchester United and Everton already, and managed 21 corners in those three alone.
Couple this with goals as there have been Over 2.5 Goals in six of Brighton’s last seven home games in the Premier League. I’m playing it a bit safer given West Brom’s last two games which has seen them be better defensively.
Statistics point to cards and penalties
The Seagulls have conceded three penalties already this season, whilst scoring twice from the spot themselves. West Brom may have learnt quickly from conceding two spot kicks against Leicester on the opening day, with Jamie Vardy dispatching them both, as matches involving them haven’t seen a penalty since.
Johnathon Moss is the man in the middle for this clash, who averaged 3.73 cards per-game last season, and has given three or more cards in his five games managed this campaign (Premier League and Carabao Cup). Last time out, he dished out seven yellow cards in Leicester against Aston Villa, in a game that was punctuated by a whopping 41 free kicks.
Given Moss’ card record so far this season, I will have a smaller play on a larger priced bet available with Betfair: Brighton to win, Brighton most corners, West Brom most cards at 4/1. The same bet is 3/1 elsewhere so slight value there.
Best Bets
Brighton vs West Brom – Brighton to win, Over 1 Brighton Goal and Over 3 Brighton Corners
Brighton vs West Brom – Brighton to win, Brighton most corners, West Brom most cards (4/1 Betfair)
