BRIGHTON welcome Watford to The Amex for Saturday evening's Premier League action. James Cantrill (@JimmyThePunt) shares his thoughts on the fixture.
Brighton vs Watford | Saturday 21st August 2021, 17:30 | Sky Sports
Both of these sides picked up maximum points on the opening weekend. The data darlings of last campaign Brighton, defined all expectations as they not only won but did so with the opposition defeating their xG tally. I expect Graham Potter’s side to excite the home fans on Saturday evening as they host Watford in a game that should see some goals, which is why I have opted to tout both teams to score at the Amex.
At Turf Moor last week, the Seagulls bagged twice and generated an xG of 1.76. At home last season, they had an xG of 33.56- a total that was only bested by City, Chelsea and Liverpool- which translates to an average xG per game of 1.76.
Albion welcome a Hornets side fresh off the back of a shock 3-2 victory at Villa Park. Whilst the result did surprise a few, the fact that the Hornets were amongst the goals should not as their attack features the likes of Troy Deeney, Cucho Hernandez, Emmanuel Dennis and Ismaila Sarr. An exciting concoction of experience, raw potential, mercurial pace and a clinical edge.
Therefore, at odds-against, I think Both Teams To Acore is a nice way in. There is a bit of uncertainty surrounding who will start for my next angle but luckily the bet does not hinge on who Potter opts to play at left back as it is all about who they will be up against; Sarr.
The Hornets livewire is a foul magnet. The Senegalise winger gave Matt Targett such a torrid time on opening day that Villa’s poor left back was hooked at half time. Sarr drew five fouls in total that day.
Last season in the Championship, only Callum O’Hare (117) drew more fouls then Sarr’s 116 as he drew an average of 3.02 per 90 minutes played. Staggeringly, he started 30 games for Watford in the Championship and his direct opponent was booked in eight games.
Therefore, in that sense, any price of 3/1 or about would represent value here. So Pascal Gross’s (7/1) and Jakub Moder’s (11/2) prices for cards with Bet365 more than appeal here.
Gross has a cards per 90 average of just 0.10 in the EPL and by that logic he should be around 9/1 for a card. However, he has rarely featured at full back, therefore, I would expect him to struggle vs Sarr, especially considering his lack of pace.
Moder has a career cards per 90 average of 0.21, however, is yet to pick one up in the Premier League. Nevertheless, like previously mentioned, this bet is not about them but who they are up against.
Best Bets
Brighton vs Watford – Both Teams To Score (6/5 MansionBet)
Brighton vs Watford – Pascal Gross to be carded (7/1 Bet365)
Brighton vs Watford – Jakub Moder to be carded (11/2 Bet365)
