THE always-excellent Harley Dale (@Harleeyy) has taken a deep dive into Monday evening's Premier League clash between Brighton and Southampton.
Brighton vs Southampton | Monday 7th December 2020, 20:00 | Sky Sports
Matchweek 11 concludes with Brighton hosting Southampton at The AMEX in a south-coast clash. This fixture has a history of being a competitive match-up, so it will be interesting to see who will come out on top under the floodlights.
Brighton come into this game on the back of an impressive 1-1 draw against Liverpool, although the Seagulls have only won just 1 of their last 8 league matches.
‘The table never lies’ is a common proverb used by many advocates of the sport, implying that a team’s league position is reflected accurately and that the table is the only thing that matters. Whilst this is true, however, there’s an argument that Brighton have performed better than the table suggests, creating an xG of 13.5 this season – the 9th highest in the league.
Graham Potter’s men have clearly been creating a plethora of goal scoring opportunities this season but their downfall lies with these being converted. With Southampton’s effective pressing expected to be on display as always, they’ll need to ensure that the chances they do create are converted efficiently – as i’m sure they won’t get many. The Saints have conceded just 10.4 shots per-game – the 5th lowest in the league.
Southampton will be looking to bounce back from a disappointing result last week against Man Utd where they lost 3-2 despite taking a 2-0 lead. It should be mentioned, however, that this defeat was Southampton’s first loss in their last 8 league matches. Given this, Ralph Hassenhuttl will be hoping for a reaction from his players coming into this game to get back to winning ways.
I have mentioned many times in my previews the way Hassenhuttl implements his philosophy within the players. High pressing, bundles of energy and making it hard for the opposition to string a sequence of passes. Brighton’s style of play is built on passing around the ball and playing fancy football, so this fixture will be a big test for them on Monday night.
One bet that I like the look of on Bet365 is Lewis Dunk Under 64.5 Passes at 5/6. Since I expect this game to be cagey and Southampton to continue their aggressive approach, I think this line is priced a tad too high.
Dunk has hit 65+ passes in just 3/7 games so far this season, where one of those matches he hit exactly 65 so I’m happy to take Under 64.5 in this.
In my opinion, Southampton edge the comparison in terms of quality on the pitch, however I don’t think too much separate both of these sides with their own unique style of plays.
Brighton have drawn 38% of their games since the start of last season, more than any other team. A game where both teams would probably take a point before the match has kicked off, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the points were shared here. Therefore, a draw result appeals to me at 12/5 and a 1-1 scoreline for an added long shot at 6/1. Both on Bet365.
Best Bets
Brighton vs Southampton – Lewis Dunk Under 64.5 Passes (5/6 Bet365)
Brighton vs Southampton – Draw (12/5 Bet365)
Brighton vs Southampton – 1-1 correct score (6/1 Bet365)
