Brighton vs Manchester United | Saturday 26th September 2020, 12:30 | BT Sport
This feels like a game between two sides that the market have opposing views on. Brighton were the Expected Goals (xG) darlings under Graham Potter last term, with performance data regularly exceeding actual results. Manchester United, by contrast, have generally seen better results than the eye would suggest across the last year or so.
Ordinarily I would think that United at 3/4 in a virtually neutrally venue against a side that they will finish 20 points clear off would be good value. However, I feel like the market may be ahead of me here and the performance against Crystal Palace is more worrying than the result. To lose that game was not the issue, it is the fact that they were completely outplayed for most of the game.
That being said, I still don’t see backing Brighton as the way to go in this encounter. Instead, my eyes are being drawn to the 5/6 with Betfair on both sides finding the net. Last season 20 of Brighton’s matches saw both sides oblige and just 18 of United’s so this isn’t a long-term stats based bet.
Instead, it is based on the belief that both outfits are better going forward than they are defensively. This term, Brighton have caused Chelsea a scare in a 3-1 loss and then comfortably disposed of a toothless Newcastle side, while scoring three goals in the process.
United clearly have more attacking threat than Steve Bruce’s side and given that Brighton only managed three clean sheets in 20 games against top half sides last season, you must think United are good for a goal.
In addition to this, the 15/4 on Aaron Connelly to score anytime with 888 is also worth a small stake. The Irishman burst on to the scene with a double against Tottenham last season before being a bit-part figure for most of the campaign. He will be a bigger part of Potter’s plans this season and scored an excellent goal in his sides victory against Newcastle last week.
All things considered, I think he is value to score in this encounter.