Brighton vs Everton | Monday 12th April 2021, 20:15 | Sky Sports
xG deniers will be scratching their heads at the odds in question for this one. 16th placed Brighton are 11/8 favourites with Everton available at 12/5 despite the fact that The Toffees are 15 points clear of their opponents.
The truth is, however, that Brighton have performed better than Everton in every facet of the game except the most important ones: scoring and stopping goals. According to the expected points table, Brighton should be ten points clear of their opponents, having managed two more shots on target than Everton this season (117 vs 115) and faced 31 fewer (99 vs 130).
Simply put: the market is expecting Brighton’s results to regress to the mean and there have been signs of that in recent weeks, with The Seagulls taking a higher percentage of their chances and winning two of their last three matches.
Their opponents Everton have just one draw and three defeats in their last four matches in all competitions and their Champions League hopes seem to be hanging by a thread with Carlo Ancelotti’s side currently eight points of fourth placed West Ham, albeit with two games in hand.
I don’t think a point is overly useful for either side, but it is probably better for Brighton. That being said, Graham Potter’s philosophy is very attack minded, so I expect the home team to be on the front foot. I can’t, however, see much value in the outright market so it is to the anytime goalscorer one I head. I did consider Lewis Dunk but actually feel that the value is with a couple of Everton players.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin has scored in 11 of his 26 starts this season, suggesting that odds of around 6/4 would be more than favourable, so I am delighted to see 41/20 with Unibet. Calvert-Lewin has 14 league goals in total this term but his expected figure is closer to 17.
Elsewhere, his fellow forward Richarlison is 10/3 with BetVictor. The Brazilian has scored four in his last seven league matches and I don’t think his total goal return (six in 25 league matches) does him justice. In what I expect to be a relatively open game, I would be very surprised if neither found the net, hence the bet!