Brighton vs Aston Villa | Saturday 13th February 2021, 20:00 | Sky Sports
According to the Expected Goals (xG) table, this should be a top seven clash, with Brighton having underperformed the data for most of the season and Aston Villa also returning fewer points than they have probably merited.
In the last fortnight The Seagulls have secured two 1-0 victories against Spurs and Liverpool and both were fully deserved. They were less impressive when drawing with Burnley last weekend and I think they are overmatched in this encounter.
While the xG table suggests that there is little in it, I think reality is that Villa have better players. They obviously have a greater profile than Brighton but how many Seagulls forward players do you have a positive opinion of?
In contrast, Villa have Jack Grealish who should be starting for England at every available opportunity, Ollie Watkins, who has 10 Premier League goals this term, Ross Barkley who has 33 England caps and Bertrand Traore who has four goals in his last nine starts.
Brighton are clearly a better side than the league table suggests and I did consider keeping 1-1 on side, given that the south coast side have a preference for a draw and five of their 23 league matches this season have ended with this scoreline. However, I still come back to my view that Villa are the better outfit and am going to back them to win by a single goal at 10/3 with Bet365.
Brighton have lost by a single goal in four of their eight losses while Villa five of Dean Smith’s victories have come by this margin. The Villains have played well on their travels – winning six in 11 – while The Seagulls have won just once in 11 encounters at The Amex this term. I did also consider backing a 2-1 victory for the away side, but am happy to take 10/3 and keep more scorelines on side.
Additionally, I will take the 13/5 with BetVictor on Yves Bissouma to be shown a card. I did consider Joel Veltman at 4/1 (and will take that bet personally) as he is up against Jack Grealish (and Brighton right back Tariq Lamptey was red carded when up against the Villa captain in the reverse) but I think Bissouma and Grealish will still lock horns on several occasions, and like the fact that the Mali international has seen seven cards in 21 league games this season and was also carded when these two met in October.
Two tips is enough for me, but have a look at the Veltman price come kick off…