Brighton v Stoke | Monday 20th November 2017, 20:00 | Sky Sports
Had I been writing this article in the middle of last week, I would have probably tipped up Brighton as 6/4 and better was available on the Seagulls.
Unfortunately, 7/5 is now the best price on the high street and whilst the Sussex outfit worthy favourites, I would be backing them due to home advantage and excellent organization rather than superior ability and this price is simply too skinny for me to get involved.
Instead, I like the look of Under 1.5 Goals, available at 24/13 with 888. I think this will be a popular market in Brighton matches this season, particularly when Chris Hughton’s side are at home.
Eleven goals in their first five home matches may not sound too feeble but it is worth noticing that the only game to feature more than three goals – a 3-1 victory against West Bromwich Albion – featured a goalkeeping horror-show, as Ben Foster will feel he should have prevented each goal.
This is also a relatively small sample size so I had a look at Stoke’s results away from home against sides outside of the top six since Mark Hughes took over. This features 56 league games.
Across this sample, there have been 127 goals (2.27 goals per game on average), with 22 of them seeing Under 1.5 Goals. This suggests there is a 39% chance of this bet winning, which is significantly more than the 35% implied probability of the 888 price.
The most likely way of this bet losing is if the game finishes 1-1, so I would also recommend backing this scoreline at 11/2 with William Hill. Given that 11 of Stoke’s 56 games from said sample and two of Brighton’s five home league games this season have finished in this manner, I believe you are getting value for money.
I could not put the more conservative among you off from simply backing Under 2.5 Goals at 3/5 with Marathon. However, I like odds-against prices so will be placing the above bets in such a way that if either win you are making a decent profit.
Brighton v Stoke – Under 1.5 Goals (24/13 888)
Brighton v Stoke – 1-1 correct score (11/2 William Hill)