DANIEL MCCULLOCH (@DMcCulloch1984) shares his favourite fancies from New Year's Day showdown between Brighton and Chelsea.
Making a stats-based bet at this time of the season is sometimes foolish given the bizarre scorelines (and results) that we tend to see.
However, I feel more confident betting on New Year's Day than I did before the previous round of fixtures, with so many sides resting players as they only had 48 hours – or fewer – between matches.
Brighton have tended to be a shorter price than I would have expected on many occasions this season. That is because – in contrast to last season – their performance data suggests they are slightly better than their league position. The Seagulls have 23 points from 20 games this term but their expected points actually total 26.
I have been impressed with Graham Potter's side on many occasions this season but do find them to be quite impotent in front of goal.
For example, they received a lot of plaudits for their performance against Tottenham on Boxing Day but I actually thought they created very little. Aside from the goal they scored from a set-piece, the Sussex side created one clear chance for Aaron Connelly but the vast majority of their efforts were from distance. As they are a side slightly lacking in pace and width, I find that they often look pretty but play in front of sides.
All things considered, I think evens for a Chelsea victory represents value. Frank Lampard's outfit have won seven of their 10 games away this season, with the defeats coming against Manchester United on the opening day, at champions Manchester City and at Everton, in Duncan Ferguson's first game in caretaker charge. The West London side can count themselves quite unfortunate to lose all three as they had 44 shots across those encounters.
Brighton's home record reads won four-drawn three-lost three but they've still got both Manchester sides, Leicester, Liverpool and Arsenal to come to The Amex.
They may well cause Chelsea problems, however and given that six of the away sides seven victories have seen both sides score, it is also worth getting with a Chelsea victory and Both Teams To Score. That is 13/5 with Betway, who are also providing evens on said away victory.