FRIDAY night football features Brentford and Watford. Jack Langford (@jacklangford95) shares his favourite fancies.
Brentford vs Watford | Friday 10th December 2021, 20:00 | Sky Sports
Neither Brentford nor Watford are flying at present and just four points separate the two sides in the table. The Bees have won just one of their last eight Premier League games, whilst the Hornets have lost five of their last six. But despite the two teams’ poor run of form, both sides will see Friday night’s game as a real opportunity to take all 3 points.
Since his appointment at the beginning of October, it hasn’t been all doom and gloom for Ranieri’s Watford. In the Tinkerman’s second game in charge, his Watford side emphatically put Everton to the sword in a 5-2 win at Goodison Park and The Hornets pulled off one of the shocks of the season so far when they hammered Manchester United 4-1 three weeks ago.
Striker Josh King is one to watch on Friday night. He’s been directly involved in nine goals in his last nine away starts in the Premier League. Since the Everton game back in October, King has the third highest XG in the league, an impressive statistic given Watford’s results and standing in the table. King also takes penalties for The Hornets, and he’s likely to find the back of the net against Brentford.
Games involving Watford average 3.27 goals, a number only surpassed by Liverpool, Leicester and Manchester United. Conceding goals is a huge problem for The Hornets and they remain the only Premier League side yet to keep a clean sheet. However, scoring goals hasn’t been a problem at all as they’re currently eighth in the goals scored table.
Switching our attention now to Watford’s opponents and a similar picture emerges. The Bees have conceded at least two goals in six of their last seven matches and they’ve found the net in all but one of their last eight games. It’s worth noting Brentford are without two key players in Sergi Canos and Ivan Toney, but despite their attacking casualties, we can still expect goals on their part. Brentford's first 8 home goals have all been scored by different players.
It’s almost Christmas, and The Hornets are likely to receive some early cards. Watford have one of the worst disciplinary records in the division. Top goalscorer Emmanuel Dennis tops the PL disciplinary table with six bookings so far this season.
Full-back Adam Masina is still sidelined with an injury, so Danny Rose is expected to start despite his torrid time against Manchester City last weekend. Rose could quite easily find himself in the referee’s book. He’s only made seven starts this season and has picked up four yellow cards.
Brentford are 11/10 favourites to take all 3 points on Friday, but given their poor home record, I’d want better value to back The Bees. Only Burnley and Norwich City have worse home records than Brentford this season and Watford’s unpredictability on the road also adds to the ambiguity. To take the sting out of backing either The Bees or The Hornets, I’m opting for a goals bet.
Best Bets
Brentford vs Watford – Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score (13/10 Boylesports)
Brentford vs Watford – Joshua King to score at anytime (9/4 Bet365)
Brentford vs Watford – Joshua King to have Over 2.5 Shots (6/4 Bet365)
Brentford vs Watford – Danny Rose to be carded (23/10 SkyBet)
Brentford vs Watford – 2-2 Correct Score (14/1 Bet365)
