JUST one domestic fixture from the top four English divisions on Tuesday night but Mark O’Haire (@MarkOHaire) has analysed Bradford’s clash with Chesterfield in the hope of finding the best value bet.
Bradford City v Chesterfield | Tuesday 19.45
Tuesday night’s focus might be on England’s trip to Italy but League One supporters will tell you, Bradford’s tussle at Chesterfield has plenty more at stake as the battle for play-off positions really starts to gather pace in England’s third tier.
A win for either side at Valley Parade would see Rochdale bounced out of their top-six place ahead of the all-important Easter double-header. It’s a huge incentive for the two promotion-chasers and makes calling a winner tricky.
The Bantams arrive on the back of a five-match unbeaten streak but three of those fixtures ended all square and Phil Parkinson’s men must do without two key components to their tried-and-trusted team on Tuesday. Centre half Andrew Davies is sidelined with a hamstring problem while Filipe Morais serves the final game of his three-match ban.
Parkinson took his troops to Portugal for a few days of warm weather training last week and was adamant the break and fresh mind-set did his team the world of good as they outfought Oldham 2-0 at the weekend. But with just seven league wins from 19 on home soil this season, it’s hard to take Bradford at quotes as short as 6/5.
Chesterfield head north having scraped past Walsall 1-0 but three defeats from four on the road without scoring will have left Paul Cook scratching his head. The Spireites have W5-D5-L8 on their travels this term with five of those losses coming at top-half teams.
However, a richly-deserved 2-1 victory at MK Dons at the start of March was a timely reminder of the threat Cook’s men pose and the visitors make the journey with a fully fit squad to choose from.
So I’m going to take a punt on Both Teams To Score at 10/11 with Coral as my stats and maths suggest it should be shorter. Bradford have scored in 17/19 league games at Valley Parade this season but only managed four clean sheets. It’s led to 13/19 (68%) of BTTS winners.
Chesterfield aren’t quite as potent but there’s enough reason to suggest we should take the plunge. The Spireites have scored in 12/19 of their away matches, keeping just four shutouts across the same period. The BTTS bet has landed in 10/19 (56%) of their road trips.
If we put the two teams’ Both Teams To Score win % together and find the average, we’ve reason to believe that this fixture has a 62% chance of producing another BTTS winner. A 62% chance implies odds of around 8/13 and we’re being offered 10/11 by Coral, making it a big value bet.
Best Bets
Bradford City v Chesterfield – Both Teams To Score (10/11 Coral)
3 Comments
Interesting stuff as always mark, had a quick look at this game last night, and was leaning towards BTTS NO at odds against, with Bradford keeping 2 clean sheets in their last 4 homes and Chesterfield failing to score in 3 of their last 4 aways.
Am I barking up the wrong tree focussing more on recent results rather than looking at season form on the whole?
Not at all, Russ. It’s all about how you rank the stats in importance. Personally, I prefer to take a stronger view of longer term stats and trends over the short term, or at least try to make sense and understand why certain trends aren’t in my favour.
In this sense, clean sheets against an Oldham side that were injury-ravaged at that time and a Crawley side that does their best work at home, it doesn’t carry as much weight as say the fact they’ve failed to keep a clean sheet at home to a top-half side.
It’s true, Chesterfield have been pretty poor on the road. But they’ve scored at least twice in 7/19 away including trips to Bristol City, PNE, MK Dons and Doncaster. They’re an attacking team by nature and although the pitch won’t suit their style, Bradford missing Davies at centre-half is pretty key and I’d rather be backing them to score rather than be shutout.
I hear what you are saying mate but out of interest would add that 5/7 away games where chesterfield scored 2+ away were before the middle of October. Good luck anyway mate