BOXING analyst Nick Munday (@NM_Sport) shares his betting thoughts on Saturday night's big bout from Las Vegas between Canelo Alvarez and Daniel Jacobs.
Canelo Alvarez v Daniel Jacobs | Sunday 5th May 2019, 04:00 | Sky Sports
It’s been a slow start to boxing in 2019, but this Saturday the fight of the year so far takes place in Las Vegas as Canelo Alvarez attempts to unify his WBC and WBA world middleweight titles with IBF champion Daniel Jacobs.
Canelo (51-1-2, 35 KOs) was fortunate to get a draw against Gennady Golovkin 18 months ago, but he improved for the rematch – after serving a six-month drug – and was given the nod by two of the judges after a close contest.
‘Miracle Man’ Jacobs (35-2, 29 KOs) was the first man to take Golovkin the distance during GGG’s title reign in March 2017, but dropped a razor-thin unanimous decision. Since then he’s recorded three points wins over then-unbeaten opposition.
Odds of 1/4 vs 7/2 aren’t far off a 50/50 fight in boxing these days, but this isn’t quite a ‘pick em’ and Canelo is rightly favoured by the bookies to become unified champion. As well as Triple G, the flame-haired Mexican has points wins over the likes of Miguel Cotto, Erislandy Lara and Julio Cesar Chavez Jr.
Four of his last seven contests went 12 rounds, with the exceptions being stoppage wins over an attack-minded Liam Smith, an overmatched Rocky Fielding and a chinny Amir Khan. Meanwhile, Jacobs’ last four fights have gone the distance, hence why just 1/2 is on offer for this to go the distance.
Interestingly the same three judges (Dave Moretti, Glenn Feldman and Steve Weisfeld) who are in charge for Saturday's scrap also scored Canelo v Golovkin II last September. While the 28-year-old was sharper and smarter second time around, it was still a controversial ending (again). When Canelo fights in Las Vegas, he’s usually a couple of rounds up before the first bell.
Alvarez is the craftier boxer, lands more punches and is the better mover. Jacobs’ height and reach advantage means this will be the biggest physical challenge of Canelo’s career, but ultimately the fresher, younger and more technically gifted man should come out on top via unanimous decision (11/8 Bet365).
Finally, Jacobs to be knocked down (7/4 Betfair) jumps out from the side markets. He touched the canvas in round four against Golovkin and although Canelo does not hit as hard as the Kazakh, he may be able to catch Jacobs coming in – especially if the American is down on the cards and desperate.
Alvarez should target the body early on so his opponent drops his arms, forcing more openings in the latter stages. The underdog has been knocked out before way back in 2010, so the 10/1 (SkyBet) on a Canelo stoppage between rounds 9-12 is worth a small play, but Jacobs survived some tough moments against Golovkin and should hear the final bell here.