BOXING analyst Nick Munday (@NM_Sport) shares his betting thoughts on Saturday night's big all-British heavyweight battle takes place when Daniel Dubois collides with Joe Joyce.
Daniel Dubois vs Joe Joyce | Saturday 28th November 2020, 22:00 | BT Sport
This Saturday the biggest all-British heavyweight battle for several years takes place when Daniel Dubois collides with Joe Joyce.
It's the biggest fight of the year on these shores, with the British, Commonwealth, and vacant European titles on the line, as well as Dubois's lofty WBO world ranking.
Dubois (15-0, 14 KOs) is the one of the most exciting heavyweight prospects in the world. At 23 years old, he’s taken out most of his opponents in devastating fashion and is expected to become a world champion under the guidance of Frank Warren.
His straight right hand is lethal, giving him the ability to put his challengers to sleep, while his left hook to the body is an underrated weapon. Many of Dubois' opponents comment on the power of his ramrod jab too, and Joyce knows this from their sparring several years ago as amateurs.
Value on the underdog?
After winning silver at Rio 2016, to add to a number of other medals, Joyce (11-0, 10 KOs) has an impressive list of scalps since turning pro. Recently he’s beaten notable opposition in Bermane Stiverne (TKO 6), Alexander Ustinov (TKO 3) and Bryant Jennings (UD).
In last summer’s win over Jennings he was hurt to the body early on, but the American couldn't capitalise – Dubois won't be so forgiving.
Sometimes Joyce isn't necessarily impressive or exciting to watch, but his style is effective. He carries power and has a high punch output. He'll probably try and keep it long with the jab, put pressure on in the clinches and take a potentially frustrated Dubois into the late rounds.
Considering this, Joyce will have backers at 3/1, and a Juggernaut stoppage between round 9-12 (15/1) is juicy if you want to back the underdog. However, the Putney giant gets hit a lot and his occasional lack of head movement could be punished.
Dubois to KO Joyce?
This is a great match-up, but the 12-year age difference could be key. Dubois’ freshness and frightening power should give him the edge in the middle stages.
Joyce, 35, has a lot of rounds under his belt and takes a lot of punches. Dubois has faster hand speed and is lighter on his feet.
With Dubois just 4/9 to stop Joyce, the round group betting market looks like the way to go. I can see a cagey opening couple of rounds before they start letting their hands go.
Normally Dubois' opponents don't make it past six minutes – 10 of his 15 victories came in the first two rounds – but this is a step up in class. Joyce can only avoid Dubois' power punches for so long, and by the middle stages Dubois should be landing some big shots to both the body and head, despatching Joyce between rounds 5-8.
Daniel Dubois vs Joe Joyce – Daniel Dubois in Round 5-8 (13/5 Betfair)