PREMIER LEAGUE analyst Lucas Swain (@LucasSwain95) takes a look Sunday's contest between Bournemouth and Arsenal.
Bournemouth v Arsenal | Sunday 14th January 2018, 13:30 | BT Sport
Arsenal make the trip to Bournemouth on Sunday seeking to find their cutting edge whilst shaking off their inability to get victory. With five draws in their last seven matches, Arsene Wenger’s side are slowly sliding away from Champions League qualification.
Currently the focus surrounding the Emirates is on Alexis Sanchez, so this match could be a welcome distraction for the supporters, but the question for us is where is the betting angle for the punters?
Goals at the Vitality
With Bournemouth shipping no fewer than 14 goals in their last five matches, it’s natural to expect them on the south coast. However, unless you’re banking on 4+ goals there are very few markets that represent value and only 27% of Bournemouth’s matches have seen that total this season.
Combining over 2.5 goals and both teams to score is a much more attractive price at 4/5 if seeking a bet in goals market. However, with it landing in just 4/11 of Arsenal’s away matches to date and 5/11 in Bournemouth’s homes, it’s difficult to justify backing it with confidence.
What could be an angle is the highest scoring half market as both sides learn towards more free-flowing second halves. Of Arsenal's 40 goals this season, 27 of which have come after the half-time whistle, and the trend continues for conceding with 17 from 28 landing in the second half.
Switching the focus to the Cherries, the split for goals scored is 50/50 but 20 of their 34 conceded has come in the second half. These stats only increase the favour for second half goals when you look at Bourmeouth and Arsenal’s home and away fixtures respectively.
Shifting the focus to the win market, it’s hard to justify backing the Gunners at below evens when they’ve won just three matches on the road this season. With a wealth of injury concerns and a poor stream of results, not to mention to distraction of Sanchez’s future, it may be worth favouring with the home side.
This is where I favour the +0.5 Asian Handicap at over EVS, as with just three victories at home I don’t have faith in backing Eddie Howe’s side despite the attractive price. I’m confident Bournemouth have the capability of avoiding defeat, with Arsenal’s current plight on the road and absentees. It’s worth noting the Cherries have no fresh injury concerns, too.
Bournemouth v Arsenal – Bournemouth +0.5 Asian Handicap (7/10 188BET)