THE BUNDESLIGA continues on Tuesday evening and Tom Love (@TomLove_18) is on-hand to preview the mouthwatering match-up between Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich.
Borussia Dortmund v Bayern Munich | Tuesday 26th May 2020, 17:30 | BT Sport
Arguably the biggest game of the 2019/20 season takes place on Tuesday night at the Westfalenstadion as Borussia Dortmund welcome champions Bayern Munich for the much anticipated Der Klassiker.
Both are on excellent winning runs, Dortmund have won six straight games in the league and have been surprisingly solid at the back, conceding just the once in that time. On the other hand, Bayern have also won six on the bounce since their goalless draw with Leipzig back in February.
Bayern still sit four points ahead of Dortmund and with a healthy goal difference that could make up another point. They do have some potentially tricky fixtures to overcome if they’re to stay at the top, mind. As well as this game they still have Leverkusen, Gladbach and Wolfsburg to play which are no gimmes.
They’re also going to a stadium where no other team have reigned victorious this season, they’re also odds on to come back to Bavaria with all three points. That could well put a few punters off FC Hollywood, but if you delve into the underlying performance data you can see a chasm between the two that may justify the quotes about the visitors.
Bayern have created an Expected Goals (xG) figure of 81.5 over the course of the season whereas Dortmund have created a figure of 49.8. That being said the data on the defensive side of the pair is neck and neck.
The betting angles
The bookies are expecting a goal-laden game with the line set at a flat 3.5, I’m rarely inclined to take the overs when there is such a line but the averages in the Bundesliga and the percentage of these twos games that have broke that barrier, make it merited.
But then there’s the human aspect, the mental aspect if you will. This rarely gets factored into the pricing models of bookmakers and does present a chance to profit should you read the game correctly. Will Bayern be happy with a point here and keep their gap with Dortmund to four points? I’d probably say so and that makes the odds-on a no bet for me.
BVB love playing games that are open and although Bayern have been attacking under Hansi Flick I do feel they could be a bit more pragmatic in such a circumstance. Not letting the hosts have the space to run into it could be slightly more cagey game than what is anticipated with few games left till the end of the season.
Just taking a look at the games Bayern have played against the top five this season they’ve seen score ones of 1-1, 4-0, 1-2, 1-2, and 0-0. Their only win came against Dortmund in the reverse fixture, one that BVB hate historically. But as you can see, the three-goal barrier has only been smashed once.
Dortmund have also seen Under 3.5 Goals land in four of their last five. All things considered I’m happy to swerve the high lines and take the 10/11 (Bet365) on Under 3.5 Goals.
I’ll also dip into the player stats market as there’s a player of interest. Admittedly, these player markets can be a bit of a minefield with the introduction of five possible substitutes but generally the players who will go off will be midfielders or attackers so I’m going to head the way of Bayern right back Benjamin Pavard.
The former Stuttgart man has had an excellent few years and he’s contributed offensively as well as at the back. He’s made two successful tackles in five of his last 13 games and made three tackles in three of those too. Dortmund like to be direct in their attacking approach, running from Rafa Guerreiro, Julian Brandt, Jadon Sancho, Gio Reyna or Thorgan Hazard. They all pose a threat and the French international could be in for a tricky evening.
What’s more, if we look at opposition players in the same position, it gives a good indication of how much they have to deal with when playing Dortmund. Wolfsburg right-back Kevin M’babu racked up three tackles against Dortmund whilst Jonjoe Kenny the Schalke right-back made four, also Gladbach right-back Stefan Lainer the game before that made three.
We can back Pavard to make 2+ tackles at a handsome 19/20 whilst we can get some 13/5 on him completing 3+ tackles, both of which look like great alternative angles for someone who should play the full 90 minutes.