THREE Sunday afternoon bookings bets for our card man Gavin Murphy (@GamePlanGavin). Tuck in!
Verona v Udinese | Sunday 14:00
Following on from my morning Serie A pick in Italy I'm tacking this Sunday afternoon clash between Verona and Udinese. Ok perhaps it's not an eye catching fixture but it's definitely one which offers us value.
The hosts average 2.71 cards per game while Udinese sit on 3.14. That gives us a total of 5.85 cards.
The corresponding fixture between these two teams last year had 10 cards in it. The game in Udinese had seven while the season before featured six cards when they met in Verona, as they do on this occasion.
Claudio Gavillucci gets the whistle for this one and he has already obliged for us earlier in the year when he dished out six yellows in the Empoli v Atalanta game. Overall he averages six cards per game so is pretty consistent.
The stats support getting involved with over 5.5 cards at 5/6 with Bet365.
Sassuolo v Lazio | Sunday 14:00
Next up on my Sunday hit-list is this tussle between Sassuolo and Lazio. Sassuolo are THE dirtiest team in Italy with an average of 3.43 cards per game while Lazio are picking up after a slow start card wise and now average 2.14. That implies 5.57 in total. On their own Lazio have picked up 13 cards in their last three games.
The corresponding fixture last term had nine cards in it while the battle in Rome between the sides boasted six. There is clearly a bit of needle between the sides.
The man in charge of this tussle is Marco Guida. He has dished out 15 yellows in his last two games. I expect this to go very close and am taking the 5/6 on over 6.5 cards offered by Bet365.
Real Sociedad v Atletico Madrid | Sunday 15:00 | Sky Sports 3
La Liga action returns this weekend and my focus was instantly drawn to the Sunday afternoon clash in the Basque country between David Moyes' Real Sociedad and Diego Simeone's Atletico Madrid.
I said before the Madrid derby that Atletico had been uncharacteristically disciplined. However, a leopard rarely changes its spots and the Madrid outfit have started to collect cards again recently (11 in their past three games). They are now up to an average of three per game (and rising!).
17th place Real Sociedad have struggled most of the season in the league and average 2.86 cards per game. Moyes is struggling to hold on to his job.
The history of this fixture is fascinating. The matches played in Madrid have a lot less cards in them recently. However, at the Anoeta it is a different story. Last season there were 11. The previous four read six, seven, 11 and five. The average is eight per game.
The man with the whistle in this one is Ignacio Villanueva and he averages 7.75 cards per game this season. He is typically one of the more stringent Spanish referees.
Bet365's opening quote of over/under 6.5 cards didn't last long and was soon replaced by 7.5. I like the look of over 6 cards at 17/20 with William Hill.
Best Bets
Verona v Udinese – Over 5.5 Cards (5/6 Bet365)
Sassuolo v Lazio – Over 6.5 Cards (5/6 Bet365)
Real Soicedad v Atletico Madrid – Over 6 Cards (17/20 William Hill)
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