CARD king Gavin Murphy (@GamePlanGavin) focuses on his favourite fixture for card value. This should be good!
Real Betis v Sevilla | Saturday 15:15
My favourite fixture in the football calendar returns on Saturday afternoon with the karate – sorry, football – match between Real Betis and Sevilla.
Betis's Estadio Benito Villamarin is the venue of the latest Seville derby and with the visitors going for the title still it promises to be as fiery and passionate as ever!
Let's get right into the stats. The past six meetings between these two teams have seen cards issued of 9-9-3-11-12-10 at an average of nine per-match. The three came in a dead rubber second leg Copa Del Rey game in January which Sevilla won 6-0 on aggregate so can largely be ignored.
The average number of first-half cards is 3.8 with 5.17 typically coming after the half-time interval – these are way above average numbers. Real Betis usually get the most cards (4.83) compared to 4.17 for Sevilla.
I don't think seasonal stats really matter in a game like this but for the record Betis average 2.91 cards per-game in La Liga in 2016/17 and Sevilla 2.87.
Card Happy Grande
Carlos Cerro Grande is the referee for this clash. He averages 6.1 cards per-game so far this term. Interestingly, he has shown six red cards in just 11 matches so probably won't mess about if disciplinary action is required.
He also has history in this fixture as he took charge of the Copa Del Rey first leg meeting in January and issued 11 cards that day including sending off Betis midfielder N'Diaye. In April 2013, he also covered this fixture in a league encounter which saw nine cards including a red card for old Sevilla enforcer Gary Medel.
Sevilla have a fabulous record against their neighbours over recent times winning five of the last six meetings. Even more shockingly Betis haven't scored a goal in those six matches!
I'm not too keen on the players to be carded market but I know some of you like it so here are some stats for you. Betis most likely card recipients are Petros (averages a card every 201 minutes), Bruno (131 minutes) and Alvaro Cejudo (96 minutes).
Sevilla's naughty men are likely to include Vicente Iborra (152 minutes), Gabriel Mercado (238 minutes) and Samir Nasri (266 minutes). If you do fancy this market and if it is available then I'd suggest checking the team news before placing a bet. 888 usually offer this market.
Sadly, as this match is not live on TV, some firms like SkyBet are not pricing the cards market at all which naturally restricts our options. So where are the best card based profit making opportunities?
Bets to be backed
Certainly one is the Time Of First Card market. The past six meetings have seen the first card issued in minutes 2-8-11-22-4-5 at an average of the 9th minute. Therefore, a Card Before 19.00 with Bet365 at 5/6 should be backed. That would have won in five of the past six meetings between these two bitter rivals.
It is hard to ignore the average number of total cards average of 9.00 per-game. It makes sense therefore to back Over 8.5 Cards at 4/5 with Bet365 given that would also have won in five of the last six meetings.
This fixture promotes maximum confidence on a card bet as you always feel a booking is never too far away. Enjoy the game!