BOOKINGS boff Gavin Murphy (@GamePlanGavin) has found value in Saturday night's La Liga action.
Sevilla v Valencia | Saturday 19:45 | Sky Sports 4
An intense battle looks guaranteed on Saturday evening at the Roman Sanchez Pizjuan stadium as Sevilla welcome Valencia.
The hosts are sitting pretty in third in La Liga but will be smarting after losing their heads and, consequently, the match against Juventus 3-1 in midweek.
No such problems for Valencia these days who are a shadow of their former selves. Once again past glories are a distant memory as they are languishing in 16th.
This looks the game of the week in Spain and referee Carlos del Cerro Grande can expect to be busy. He averages a very high 8.17 cards per-game in Spain's top-flight this season.
Notably, when Grande loses it he really loses it – this is evidenced by total cards per-game of 4-13-4-15-7-6. In six top-flight matches this season Grande has sent off six so history suggests he won't be shy in reaching for the pocket.
In career games officiating the hosts he has typically given them 4.07 cards per-game. He averages a fairly low 2.69 cards per-game to Valencia – that suggests that 6.76 total cards could be expected in this fixture.
A history of cards
However, the visitors have had a man sent off in their last two visits to this stadium so that would boost the expected total. Indeed, the past four league meetings between these two clubs have seen total cards of 4-11-11-8, at an average of 8.50 per-game.
This season Sevilla average 3.00 cards per-game and Valencia 2.67 cards per-game.
Sevilla's Franco Vasquez and his manager Jorge Sampaoli were sent off by Mark Clattenburg against Juventus and the frustration from that could resurface here, particularly if struggling Valencia park the bus.
You get the feeling that Sevilla feel that the whole world is against them right now and it won't take much to stoke their fire.
Given that this referee has given 12+ bookings twice already this season out of just six appearances and that 2/4 recent head-to-head meetings have had 11 cards shown, I'm pushing the boat out.
None of this 5/6 nonsense – I'm backing exactly '11 bookings' with Stan James at 22/1 in their ‘Exact Total Bookings' market.
I'm also backing '12+' cards with Stan James at a colossal 28/1.
Few games have really kicked off in Spain this year. This might just a match that does!
In this market, a yellow card counts as one booking, a straight red counts as two bookings and a second yellow card (and so sending off) counts as three bookings.
Sevilla v Valencia – Exactly 11 Bookings (22/1 Stan James)
Sevilla v Valencia – 12+ Bookings (28/1 Stan James)