GAVIN Murphy (@GamePlanGavin) returns to the WLB fold with an intriguing bookings angle from Serie A on Sunday.
Lazio v Roma | Sunday 14:00 | BT Sport 2
It's Il Derby Capitale on Sunday afternoon as heavyweights Roma and Lazio do battle. In 1927 three football clubs in Rome merged to create Roma. Lazio, named after the region in which Rome lays, refused to join. Lazio became outsiders.
Their fan base was outnumbered 3 to 1 and the derby became a question of territory. Roma are traditionally left wing whereas Lazio are notoriously proud to be right wing. Ok enough of the background. You get the gist!
Lazio are much improved this season and occupy fourth position in Serie A, two places and one point below Roma. Lazio haven't beaten Roma since 2012. Indeed the lower ranked team (Lazio this time around) hasn't won this fixture in six years.
The past six meetings from a card perspective read as 9-7-8-8-5-9. That is an average of 7.67 per game.
Fixture over season
Luca Banti gets the whistle for this showdown. He averages a low 4.2 cards per game in Italy's top flight this term. However, in those five matches he has shown three red cards. He did the corresponding fixture last season and dished out nine cards.
In career games officiating Roma he typically gives them 2.36 cards per game and 2.89 to Lazio. Of course that ignores the fact that this is a big derby match.
Bet365's line is under or over 7.5 cards. Other bookies seem to be basing their line on Banti's low card numbers this season rather than the historical stats in this fixture. I'm going with the historical record and over 65pts at 10/11 with William Hill gets my vote.
Lazio v Roma – Over 65 Bookings Points (10/11 William Hill)