GROUP A at the Copa America is back on stage on Tuesday night as Bolivia take on Peru in Rio. James O'Rourke (@JamesOR1) shares his betting thoughts.
Bolivia v Peru | Tuesday 18th June 2019, 22:30 | Premier Sports
Group A continues between two sides who failed to win and score in their opening contests of the 2019 Copa America. As expected, Bolivia went down to hosts Brazil, but they at least made their opponents sweat by holding it to 0-0 at half time, before then losing 3-0 on the night.
Peru was involved a 0-0 with Venezuela; a score was doesn’t necessarily tell the whole story. Nevertheless, both sides approach this clash knowing that three points would very much keep them in contention to qualify.
Even a draw would probably keep Bolivia in the mix knowing that two third-placed teams will also progress. Peru are odds-on to claim the three points in this one, but can a case be made for Bolivia?
I don’t think it would necessarily be far to judge Bolivia on them based on their 90-minute showing versus Brazil. Clearly they went into that one looking to make life tough and at best earn a point. They did as well as can be expected before the Brazilians turned up the ante in the second period. Anything from that would have been a huge, huge bonus Eduardo Villegas’ men, but Peru present more realistic opposition for them to get something from.
However, the last three head-to-head meetings has gone the way of Peru officially, including at the last Copa America in 2015. We actually have to go all the way back to 2008 for the last time Bolivia were victorious in this particular fixture.
It is well-documented of the fact Bolivia make the most of home advantage due to their stadium being some 12,000 feet above sea level. This helped them in last World Cup qualification defeat the likes of Argentina and Chile, plus earn a draw with Brazil at their Stadio Hernano Stiles.
Peru were credited with a 3-0 win when they travelled there by the federation, but they actually lost 2-0 on the night. Peru still finished well ahead of Bolivia in that group stage to get to Russia 2018, and Peru earned some friends despite not making it out of the group at the showpiece event.
Bolivia's approach key
One thing we can note from the Venezuela game is that Peru are going to make us sweat if we are indeed willing to get on side with them at odds-on. For all that they created a few decent openings going forward, that they really should have taken at least one of, defensively they aren’t rock solid and Bolivia can take heart from that.
I’m actually leaning towards the opinion that Bolivia are over-priced in this one at 13/2 to win a 90-minute contest against quite a less than convincing opponent. Having said that though, Peru do have a bigger threat going forward. Peru had 17 shots versus Venezuela, but only five were on targets.
Ultimately I do think this game will come down to how Bolivia approach it. If they sit back and play a defensive game once again, then they can and probably will frustrate this rather limited Peru outfit. They do seem at their best playing more on the break and perhaps lack a creative spark or two. Should Bolivia play a bit more expansive then I can see Peru having a bit more joy.
Bolivia have failed to score in six of their last seven matches, whilst Peru have three clean sheets in their previous five, they aren’t ones we can categorically state are strong at the back. The last time they faced Bolivia, they may have won 2-1 but the fact they conceded is highlighted even more knowing Bolivia only had four shots on goal overall.
Los Incas can pick up positive result
Considering Peru are the odds really expected to take the initiative in this one, I can see Bolivia sitting back here, at least to begin with. Matters would probably open up once a goal is scored, but for Peru this is all about getting the three points that is seemingly expected of them.
Bolivia clearly don’t have high aspirations for this tournament, but gaining a draw here would at least take it to the last game, knowing a win for them over Venezuela would give them a real shot at making the next stage as one of the better third-placed outfits.
I’m not convinced by Peru as they’re just far too inconsistent to go too over the top about them as an odds-on shot here. We can’t rely deny that they are probably a stronger all-round team than Bolivia however.
This is likely to be closer than the odds suggest, and a draw would honestly not surprise me. Bolivia would need a lot to go right for them to win, so I’ll just keep Peru on side alongside a lack of goals. My selection is Peru Double Chance and Under 3 Goals at 5/6 (Bet365) on the Bet Builder.
Five of Bolivia’s last seven has contained a maximum of two goals, whilst we can say the same in six of Peru’s previous eight. This is more of a must not lose game for Bolivia, whilst Peru are probably in need of the win more despite having a point extra than Bolivia with Brazil still to come.
Best Bets
Bolivia v Peru – Peru Double Chance and Under 3 Goals (5/6 Bet365)
