BAYERN MUNICH face Sevilla on Friday night in the European Super Cup. Jack Wright (@JackWright_BSB) is on-hand to preview his favourite fancies.
Bayern Munich vs Sevilla | Thursday 24th September 2020, 20:00 | BT Sport
Hansi Flick’s Bavarians warmed up for this clash in textbook Bayern fashion with an 8-0 thrashing of sorry Schalke in their first Bundesliga game of the season whilst Los Rojiblancos’ last competitive match was the 3-2 victory over Inter Milan in last month’s Europa final.
Losing the exceptional Thiago Alcantara would be felt by any side but the manner in which Munich coped with that, plus key absentees David Alaba, Alphonso Davies and Kingsley Coman was impressive in their opener.
The sight of Robert Lewandowski back on the scoresheet as he aims to follow up a season where he averaged a goal every 90 minutes and Serge Gnabry seemingly going from strength-to-strength after firing in an opening day hat-trick will strike fear in to most sides who have to take on the German champions this term.
Julen Lopetegui is the next coach tasked with attempting to halt the Bavarian juggernaut who have now won an incredible 22 consecutive games in all competitions and he will have to do so without inspirational playmaker Ever Banega and highly regarded – unless you’re Tim Sherwood – Tottenham new boy, Sergio Reguilon.
Ivan Rakatic has been re-signed from Barcelona to fill the Banega-sized hole in midfield while stars of last season Lucas Ocampos and Jules Kounde will be available for a side who let’s not forget are themselves defending a proud 21-game unbeaten run.
As you would expect for a team in such scintillating form, Bayern are prohibitive odds-on favourites at a best priced 1/3 with bookies taking no chances on other popular markets too – Lewandowski is just 2/5 to score and it is 1/3 for Over 2.5 Goals. But as always, we can still find strong angles to attack.
Unfortunately, in the time taken to research and spot three player prop bets to then typing and submitting this piece, all three prices have been obliterated in the market – or lines moved significantly.
Both Joshua Kimmich and Leon Goretzka were available at 20/21 with Boylesports to make Over 1.5 Tackles while Niclas Sule 70+ passes at 4/5 and 75+ at 6/5 with Ladbrokes were my picks, so in the unlikely outcome of any or all of those players getting anywhere near those lines again they would definitely be plays.
Serge Gnabry 2+ shots on-target (13/8 Paddy Power)
One player I am still able to side with is the aforementioned Gnabry who is in white-hot form following that Schalke treble which means he has now struck eight times in his last seven appearances.
Paddy Power offer 13/8 for Gnabry to have 2+ shots on-target which is something he has done in three of his last four games (2, 3, 0, 3) with the Champions League final against PSG the only occasion he didn’t trouble the keeper.
Other firms have him at odds-on which I make about right for the Stuttgart-born forward who hit 2+ shots on target in five of his 10 Champions League appearances last season, and with him attacking from the side voided by Reguilon it will be an area Bayern will look to exploit.
Bayern Munich to score a penalty (3/1 Bet365)
Another man in-form is our very own Anthony Taylor who is the referee in charge of this one – and by in-form I refer to his penalty awarding prowess in the opening two weeks of the Premier League season.
Taylor began the campaign by awarding Leicester two penalties in their visit to West Brom (to win our Jamie Vardy to score a penalty selection) but showed that was no fluke as he pointed to the spot twice again when he officiated Leeds versus Fulham at the weekend.
The Manchester whistleblower is fast becoming a favourite of ours as a consistent distributor of cards and spot kicks – last season he ranked second on the regular Premier League referee list for penalties given per-game with an average of 0.38.
As previously mentioned, this is Sevilla’s first outing of the new season so we are a little unsure as to the condition of their players but certainly will be lacking a little match sharpness compared to their illustrious opponents which could lead to mistimed or last ditch tackling in the area.
Interestingly, the Spanish side have also conceded a spot kick in their last three competitive games and all inside the first 15 minutes. So hopefully that trend continues here and we won’t have to wait too long to collect our money.
Bayern Munich v Sevilla – Serge Gnabry – 2+ shots on target (13/8 Paddy Power)
Bayern Munich v Sevilla – Bayern Munich to score a penalty (3/1 Bet 365)