BAYERN MUNICH host RB Leipzig in Saturday's standout showdown from the Bundesliga. Jack Wright (@JackWright_BSB) is on-hand to preview his favourite fancies.
Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig | Saturday 5th December 2020, 17:30 | BT Sport
The top two in the Bundesliga collide with league leaders and reigning champions Bayern Munich welcoming second place RB Leipzig with just two points separating the sides.
With Champions League group stage qualification already secured Hansi Flick had the luxury of resting nine regular starters for the 1-1 draw with Atletico Madrid which was in contrast to Julian Nagelsmann whose understandable decision to go full strength in search of keeping his sides own qualification hopes alive was rewarded with an injury time win over Istanbul Basaksehir in a seven-goal thriller.
The extra freshness in the Bavarians legs could prove crucial here for a side that never needs a second invitation to press home an advantage or exploit opponent weakness – or in this case both.
Interestingly in their previous 70 games Bayern have only failed to score in two of them – both against Leipzig – however, I really can’t see them making that a third occasion in this one or for that matter recording their first win over the hosts in Munich.
As we would expect odds on a home win are very prohibitive, even taking into account the close proximity of the sides in the table, with a best priced, widely available 4/9 certainly not a selection I could put forward here.
At similar odds the scoring phenomenon that is Robert Lewandoski can be backed at best priced 4/7 to add to his tally of 12 Bundesliga goals from just eight appearances in this season's competition. Which means we are going to have to look a little outside the box for our selections in this one.
Bayern to start slowly?
Firstly, I’m putting forward two selections based on the same statistic that Bayern have now fallen behind in the first half in five of their last six competitive matches (W4, D1, L0) going in at half time behind in two.
It would make sense that with the extra fatigue in their legs if Leipzig are to have any chance of claiming three points here and in doing so the coveted top spot, they will have to start strong, I really cannot see them chasing a game successfully so in essence needing to score in the first half.
This also of course fits in nicely with Bayern's recent pattern of starting a little slowly and we can get odds of 13/10 with Betway for Die Rotten Bullen score in the first half and keep Manuel Neuer waiting a little longer to equal Oliver Kahn’s Bundesliga record of 196 clean sheets.
We know Bayern can blow any side away by half time but by extending our first half thinking a little more we can have a tiny play on an 19/1 shot in the half time/full time market.
If Leipzig can follow in the footsteps of Bremen and Atletico Madrid and take a lead in to the interval only there is more than a good chance for the home side to complete a second half turn around by making their extra fitness and quality.
Angelino can impress
So, who can find the net for the visitors? Their top scorer is Angelino, currently on loan from Manchester City and making a great impact with his temporary employers with four league goals from nine games including the opener in last weekend's victory over Bielefeld, as well as two UCL strikes to his name.
Bayern are actually conceding a fair number of shots against them with over 10 per game in the league but the likes of the other Red Bull side, Salzburg, firing 20 attempts at Neuer forcing 11 saves and with Nagelsmann’s side at the top of the shots averages in the Bundesliga with 16.6 per game – Angelino may have plenty of chances to take aim.
Officially operating as a left back the 23-year-old Spaniard is never overly constrained to a rigid position and likes to operate in more advanced roles down the left-hand side, which has led him to have 19 shots in those nine appearances at an average of 2.11 per appearance.
Broken down game by game starting with the most recent that’s 6-2-1-1-2-2-2-1-2 which makes the 2/1 on offer with Paddy Power a surprisingly generous quote.
I can’t let this preview pass without suggesting another pro-Bayern play, after all like many I expect them to dominate the match and win – although not being prepared to take on the handicaps or win with high goals selections – as after all this particular head-to-head when played at Bayern’s stadium has only seen Over 2.5 Goals crossed surprisingly on one occasion – the first meeting back in 2016 which ended in a 3-0 home win.
I’ve already mentioned Angelino’s impressive exploits going forward and that he isn’t your conventional old school left back but who can take advantage of the potential gaps at the back – well in truth any one of a number in Bayern red!
In-form Coman undervalued
More specifically I will be going for Kingsley Coman who can operate on either wing and is in better form than fellow wide-man Serge Gnabry.
The French international has scored for his club in each of his last three appearances and in the game before that for his country in a seven-minute cameo – meaning he should be full of confidence coming in to this one and also fresh as one of the rested players being an unused substitute in midweek.
Odds of 7/2 with Sky Bet for the 23-year-old to score at any time seem as little long to me and I am taking them.
Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig – RB Leipzig to score Over 0.5 First-Half Goals (13/10 Betway)
Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig – RB Leipzig/Bayern Munich (19/1 SBK)
Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig – Angelino 2+ Shots (2/1 Paddy Power)
Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig – Kingsley Coman to score (7/2 SkyBet)