THE BUNDESLIGA continues on Saturday evening and Tom Love (@TomLove_18) is on-hand to preview Bayern Munich's match-up with Eintracht Frankfurt.
Bayern Munich v Eintracht Frankfurt | Saturday 23rd May 2020, 17:30 | BT Sport
Champions Bayern Munich were more steady than spectacular in their first game back after the forced break, winning 2-0 at mid-table Union Berlin on Sunday. They didn’t really have to get out of second gear in the capital and gaffer Hansi Flick will know they can perform better, however they got the job done which is all the need to carry on doing to bring home yet another title.
Interestingly, the Bavarians have a tricky looking run-in until the end of the season so it’s not a forgone conclusion that they win the league. After this weekend they have Dortmund in ‘Der Klassiker’ and they’ve still to play Monchengladbach, Leverkusen and Wolfsburg which will pose them different tests. However, this weekend's fixture with Frankfurt is one of the more agreeable ones for Flick and co.
The Eagles have the worst road record in the Bundesliga, taking a measly seven points from a possible 36. I’ll cut them a bit of slack though. It’s been an extremely long few years for Die Adler with them reaching the semi-finals of the Europa League last season as well as winning the DFB Pokal the season before all with a squad lacking in depth compared to the big boys of the league.
Adi Hutter has done a great job on the whole with this Frankfurt side but it does look like it’s catching up with them. Hutter’s side looked especially poor at home to Gladbach on Saturday evening and deservedly lost. It was how ineffective they were going forward that stood out, usually they at least provide some threat at the business end of the pitch but they created a single expected goal overall and the Andre Silva consolation goal accounted for over half of that.
There’s an over reliance on left winger Filip Kostic, and for all his obvious quality it’s not enough to rely on for a full 90 minutes. Defensively they’re no great shakes either, Frankfurt have conceded two or more goals in five of their last six games in all competitions and they average 1.8 goals against over the full Bundesliga campaign.
Dominik Kohr misses out this weekend too through suspension whereas top scorer Goncalo Pacienca remains a doubt. It’s hard to find away to get with the terrible travellers this weekend.
Bayern are priced up as short as 1/6 and it’s understandable given their performance data, the Bavarians boast a staggering +45.8 xG differential, compare that to the two teams directly below them you have Dortmund (+15.6) and Monchengladbach (+19.8), you can see their sheer dominance.
With Thomas Muller and Robert Lewandowski back to their destructive best it’s hard to not fathom a pretty comfortable win for the hosts here.
The betting angles
You have to be creative when trying to find a bet involving Bayern these days, especially when they’re such overwhelming favourites. With that being the case I’ll head to the BetBuilder on Bet365 and combine Bayern Half-Time/Bayern Full-Time and Bayern to have Over 2 First-Half Corners which gives us a more palatable 23/20 shot.
With that big game against Dortmund midweek I feel the hosts will try come out all guns blazing and get the job done early on if they can so they can rest some of their key men later in the game, especially with the new five-substitutes rule. What’s more Frankfurt have been losing at half time and ending up losing in six of their nine away defeats this season.
Bayern also rack up the corners this season, especially at the Allianz Arena averaging around 7.3 per-game and with them expected to make a fast start I’d envisage a lot of one way pressure and quite a few early corners for Bayern.
Bayern Munich v Eintracht Frankfurt – Bayern Munich HT/FT and Bayern Munich Over 2 First-Half Corners (23/20 Bet365)