THE BUNDESLIGA continues on Saturday and Tom Love (@TomLove_18) is on-hand to preview the match-up between Bayern Munich and Borussia Monchengladbach.
Bayern Munich v Borussia Monchengladbach | Saturday 13th June 2020, 17:30 | BT Sport
The big game of the day in the Bundesliga comes at the Allianz Arena as Bayern Munich host Borussia Monchengladbach. The title is looking all but a formality for Bayern now, they’ve been a relentless winning machine under Hansi Flick but they’re coming up against a dangerous opponent in Gladbach who have top-four aspirations themselves.
Interestingly, the Foals have a half-decent record against the champions, winning three of the last six meetings. It was these two sides that were the dominant forces in Germany around 40-50 years ago, and really this is the original ‘Der Klassiker’.
However, for this clash there’s a whole host of star names absent. For Bayern the lethal duo of Thomas Muller and Robert Lewandowski are both suspended whilst Thiago has been ruled out once more.
Serve Gnabry isn’t 100% fit either meaning Flick will have to play about with his formation, he could push Ivan Perisic up front and advance Alphonso Davies to left wing and make use of a Lucas Hernandez at the back. Alternatively, Flick may opt for youngster Joshua Zirkzee.
Gladbach are without influential attacker Alassane Plea after he stupidly got sent off last week at Freiburg. So often have Plea and Marcus Thuram caused problems for defences but the double act are broken up here and Marco Rose has a decision to make. He could opt for the evergreen Raffael or he may just opt to play on the counter shifting Thuram to the left and applying someone like Lars Stindl or Florian Neuhaus as a false nine.
To be fair, Thuram likes to float of to the left touchline in most games. He craves being able to get a run at his man and that means Bayern right-back Benjamin Pavard could once again be targeted.
We put up Pavard in the tackles market last week against Leverkusen and he did the business at a generous price. Many firms have clipped him in but William Hill still hold some 5/4 on the Frenchman having Over 1 Tackle and that looks too big.
The World Cup winner has had 2+ tackles in 10 of his last 16 and four of his last five. He likes to come in centrally too and can be in decent tackling scenarios when there’s a swift transition. Likely to be up against the confident Thuram he will have his hands full.
I was also keen to swerve a high goal line, that has seen some money though and we’re playing off a flat 3.5 with it slightly favouring the unders. It’s understandable though with such key goal threats ruled out. I’ll therefore dip into the BetBuilder market with Bet365 and take Under 5 Goals and Both Teams Over 0 Cards which chimes in at a nice 10/11.
Felix Zwayer has the whistle and he averages 4.40 cards per-game, a pretty healthy number for Bundesliga standards. Both sides still have a lot on the line and there’s no love lost. It looks a canny way in.
Bayern Munich v Borussia Monchengladbach – Benjamin Pavard Over 1 Tackle (5/4 William Hill)
Bayern Munich v Borussia Monchengladbach – Under 5 Goals and Both Teams Over 0 Cards (10/11 Bet365)