AUSTRALIA need to win this match against Peru to have any chance of getting past the group stages for the first time since 2006. Ross Casey (@RossCasey24) offers his World Cup betting advice for this fixture on Tuesday.
Australia v Peru | Tuesday 26 June 2018, 15:00 | ITV
Somewhat surprisingly, Peru have been made clear favourites to win this one with best odds of just 7/5, despite the fact that they have lost both matches so far, have been eliminated and are without arguably their most important player Jefferson Farfan through injury.
In fact, Peru are winless in their last eight World Cup matches, failing to score in six of those games!
With stats like those, it may come as a surprise that Australia – who could potentially qualify with a win here – are the outsiders in this one. They are a best price of 63/25 with Marathon.
This Peru side were unbeaten in 15 going into their World Cup opening fixture against Denmark, and if it wasn't for a missed penalty, they would have extended that sequence to 16. Instead they were the victims of a 1-0 defeat and then suffered the same fate against France meaning they are eliminated from the tournament and have not even scored yet.
That is actually somewhat surprising, because they are certainly creating chances. Peru have had 27 efforts on goal over two games. It's a big game for talismanic Paolo Guerrero here in what will surely be his final World Cup game. With Jefferson Farfan's unfortunate training injury, the attack now falls on his shoulders.
They have only conceded two goals, but with nothing to lose in this final game of their World Cup, they could well play on the front foot again, despite having nothing to play for than pride.
Australia have only lost two of their last 11 games themselves and put up a decent fight against both France and Denmark last week. The Aussies have taken results from Colombia, Hungary, and Czech Republic during recent matches, so there are plenty of reasons to feel confident that they can qualify with a win against Peru.
Andrew Nabbout will need to be replaced up front for Australia, after his dislocated shoulder against Denmark and his industry will be missed, but it is a chance for possibly another custodian in Tim Cahill to create his own final World Cup moment!
The Socceroos have lost four of their last five World Cup matches, with their draw against Denmark last time out ending a run of four straight defeats, but need to pick up a win here to have any chance of qualification.
The betting angle
Australia have kept just one clean sheet in their 15 previous World Cup games, and Peru have nothing to lose here after good performances have not produced good results.
Therefore, I actually think goals are on the cards here. Both teams to score is odds on so I will avoid that market and head to the over/under market where you can back over 2.5 goals at 11/10 (Betfair).
Australia need to attack in order to win the game and Peru will be desperate to score a World Cup goal and restore some pride.
Australia v Peru – Over 2.5 Goals (11/10 Betfair)