MATCHDAY 30 of Bundesliga continues on Sunday afternoon as Augsburg entertain Koln. Matthew Kirby (@M_Kirby95) shares his research.
Augsburg v Koln | Sunday 7th June 2020, 17:00 | BT Sport
Koln make the trip to Bavaria to face Augsburg in a Sunday showdown with both clubs looking over their shoulders. The Billy Goats put in a battling display although they were well beaten by a top-four chasing RB Leipzig and Markus Gisdol’s side are now winless in five.
Gisdol is also has a few injury concerns to key forwards. Mark Uth missed Monday’s defeat and remains a doubt, while Jhon Cordoba is in a race against time to shake off an injury that saw him replaced in the first half against Leipzig.
It’s starting to become squeaky bum time for Augsburg who sit four points above the relegation play-off spot. The Fuggerstadter need to be more adventurous and take a few more risks if they want to keep their heads above the water. They were beaten by Hertha Berlin at the weekend when conceding a second when going all-out for the equaliser.
Heiko Herrlich has been boosted by the return of Philipp Max and the full-back has already got five assists to his name, the second-highest tally of those in Augsburg shirts.
Fiery reverse fixture
I’m not one usually to get dragged into the reverse fixture but it’s hard to avoid because plenty happened. A 1-1 draw with 12 corners and 160 Booking Points tells the story of an eventful game. Throw in 32 fouls then things here could be pretty tasty once more with the referee in for a busy evening.
Bet365 have the bar at 28.5 free kicks to get even-money. And despite the reverse fixture that’s a big ask. Although Koln average 12.4 free kicks won and 14.1 free kicks conceded, while the hosts commit 10.9 fouls per game, but that rises to 11.5 at home.
These two sides both rack up the tackles. Koln sit second for tackles completed (18.4), while Augsburg make 15.4, so it could be a cagey affair, which brings cards into the mix.
Over the last few games, it’s been noticeable how the referees are reaching into their pockets more often. Five yellows in the first-half of Freiburg v Gladbach on Friday night a good example.
The Billy Goats have been fairly ill-disciplined with the second-most yellows (66) and 4 reds, so given the above foul and tackle stats, 20+ Booking Points for each team looks reasonable at 5/6 with Sky Bet.
The betting angles
The way Koln play should make this a high-scoring game. They’ve conceded 2+ goals in each of their last five and their backline is something of a mess that Gisdol has to sort out. The Billy Goats are slightly outperforming on Expected Goals – they’ve scored 46 from 44.8xG. While on the road, they’re bang-on scoring 20 from an output of 20.73xG.
Augsburg have 40 goals from 39.13xG this season, but slightly concerning is the way they are out-performing at home scoring 25 times from an output of 19.74xG. When you look at the averages this season, Augsburg games average 3.43 goals per game, while Koln’s average is 3.71. So, that makes me look towards those options, especially with the visitors’ leaky record.
Their combined home and away records for BTTS is 20/24, so putting together Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 Goals looks a sensible play.
Although Koln are likely to have more possession, there’s a chance if Augsburg win it high up the likes of Ruben Vargas and Marco Richter can get at the visitors centre-halves. While opposition holding midfielders have racked the tackles up against Vargas and Richter of late, there’s a play in the cards market that looks a tad too big.
So, the 4/1 on a Toni Leistner card does appeal. The Koln full-backs do like to get forward meaning space down the wings exposing the likes of Leistner and Czichos. He got booked early on against Leipzig for a late tackle and he does get sucked into making silly challenges. He averages 1.3 fouls per game and has picked up four cards across his Championship and Bundesliga games.
Therefore I’m hoping to see him getting dragged out of position and into areas he won’t want to be in because that’s when he’s vulnerable and he’ll tread water against a pacey opponent.
Given how open they’ve been at the back then he could be reduced to taking one for the team at some point and given he’s 4/1 with Bet365 – nearly double the price of some firms, then it’s worth taking.