ASTON VILLA host Manchester City on Sunday. We asked Tom Love (@TomLove_18) to source the best bets from the Premier League encounter.
Aston Villa v Manchester City | Sunday 12th January 2020, 16:30 | Sky Sports
Two teams that garnered decent results midweek in the EFL Cup meet at Villa Park on Sunday afternoon. It’s always a difficult task to try and get value out of Manchester City games as prices are always prohibitive in a whole host of markets.
I’d fancy City to win this but it looks a stretch backing them to overcome the handicap lines given the fact they concede so often. Aymeric Laporte’s return to fitness can’t come quick enough for Pep Guardiola but he’s got the attacking arsenal to counteract that.
They may have to be patient here though, Villa were surprisingly stout defensively at the King Power the other day and held out for the most part of the game before Leicester scored. They may sit very deep in a low block and draw Man City players forward before trying to hit them on the break and get some three-on-three situations. The bookies don’t fancy them here though, the hosts are as big as 15/1 to win at home.
The betting angle
In order to try and extract some value I’m going to delve into Coral’s BuildYourBet market and focus on the tackle market. If we put together Jack Grealish, Trezeguet and Kevin De Bruyne to each have 1+ tackle each we get a nice 6/5 quote.
Grealish and Trezeguet both average 1.3 tackles per-game and will surely be defending from the front here as City look to dominate high up the pitch. That makes the attackers a much more sensible pick in the tackle market as the back five will probably be too deep to go and engage.
If Villa set up in a similar style to Wednesday night then these two will be on the flanks and therefore be charged with looking after the threat from wing back from City. They will be much more likely to engage in contrast to the defenders so I’m happy to get them on board.
Also chucking in KDB for a tackle boosts it from 4/6 to 23/20 which looks worth taking. Man City will look to win the ball back high up the pitch and I could see the Belgian playing a deeper midfield role here. He averages 1.5 tackles per-game.
It’s also 17/2 for all three players to have two or more tackles and that could be worth a tickle too. It’s landed seven times for Grealish and Trezeguet this season and nine times for De Bruyne – this game sets up well for all in my eyes, should all play.
I’d go with a 75% stake on the 6/5 and 25% on the 17/2 here as far as a staking plan would go.