ALEX JONES (@AlexJ0nes9) analyses the odds as Arsenal take on Olympiacos in the Europa League on Thursday night.
Arsenal vs Olympiacos | Thursday 18th March 2021, 17:55 | BT Sport
Arsenal were deserved winners last Thursday in Piraeus and have a comfortable 3-1 lead. Their victory over arch-rivals Tottenham last weekend will only have heightened their confidence heading into this one.
Despite manager Mikel Arteta’s criticism over his side’s defensive errors in recent weeks, there is nothing he could have done to prevent Erik Lamela’s wonder goal. Still, that’s 10 games in a row without a clean sheet for the Gunners.
Their win at The Emirates last weekend will have settled them down a little with multiple trips to Greece over the last month.
Given Arsenal practically have a three-goal lead, the Greek side will have to try and get on the ball and break down the Arsenal defence. That should see a slight possession shift at The Emirates with Arteta’s side happy to let Olympiacos have the ball.
Instead of playing Olympiacos passes, I will propose Kieran Tierney to attempt under 53.5 passes at 5/6 with Bet365.
Odds of 5/6 imply a win probability of 55%, yet we have a bet that has copped in 74% of the Scotland international’s 23 starts for Arsenal this season, in 17/23 of Tierney’s 21 Premier League games and 2 Europa League ties to be exact.
It has won in 8/10 of the Scot’s home starts so we look to have a value price here.
Tierney only had 44 passes in Piraeus when Arsenal were completely dominant on the ball. His only other Europa League start against Benfica saw him yield 40 passes despite Arsenal having 53% possession.
What’s more is that when Tierney has attempted 54 or more passes (six times), he has been playing sides in the bottom half of the possession table in 5 of these 6. Games in this sample include Burnley, Sheffield United, West Brom, Villa and Fulham.
We could even see Tierney substituted if Arteta wants to rest some of his most important players ahead of a huge game against West Ham on Sunday in their hunt for a European spot.
The game state should help this bet win, with The Gunners 2/5 favourites to win they will likely go ahead in the game =, at least according to the bookies, and that should see a desperate Olympiacos side forced to get on the ball.
Best Bet
Arsenal vs Olympiacos – Kieran Tierney Under 53.5 Passes (5/6 Bet365)
