THE irrepressible Jack Wright (@JackWright_BSB ) is on-hand to preview Tuesday nights's MD5 matches from the Champions League action not involving English clubs.
Dynamo Kiev v Bayern Munich | Tuesday 23rd November 2021, 17:45
Dynamo Kiev warmed up for this likely make or break clash with a 6-1 thumping of Chernomorets Odessa to edge ahead of Ukrainian Premier League title rivals Shakhtar Donetsk on goal difference – it’s a timely boost given they come in to this clash bottom of Group E and chasing their first goal of the campaign.
Being five points adrift of second placed Barcelona it looks unlikely there is any chance of extending their UCL campaign however they will retain hope of qualification for the Europa League but realistically will need something from this tie in Kiev.
For their part Bayern have already qualified – with their standard 100% start to the campaign taking care of business with two games to spare – taking at least a point back with them to Munich will secure top spot ahead of the final game week visit of Barcelona.
Both managers have injury/illness concerns which will likely go against the home side as Julian Nagelsmann will be limited in his ability to rotate with the likes of Serge Gnabry, Joshua Kimmich and Jamal Musiala reportedly set to miss out because of COVID, while Dayot Upamecano is definitely out through suspension.
It also never seems to be a good time to play the Bavarians off the back of a rare defeat, as is the case here with Augsburg hoisting themselves out of the Bundesliga bottom three with a shock 2-1 defeat of the German champions on Friday night.
Bayern have now lost two of their last five competitive games but remain imperious in Europe’s elite club competition, having won 23 of their last 25 fixtures and scoring four or more in each of their last three matches in this group.
It’s just not in the Munich DNA to take their foot off the gas and I can’t see past another victory for them in Ukraine, as reflected by odds of 2/7 for the away win – however given they won the reverse 5-0 after taking a 2-0 lead in to half-time there is a way to get them onside at a more palatable price.
Of their nine Bundesliga wins this season, eight have been with them leading at Half-Time, Barcelona and Benfica also suffered the same fate as well as Dynamo in the group stages so far with a total of 10 of their previous 12 UCL wins seeing Bayern take a lead in to the interval – this has been the case in 10 of their last 14 in this competition in total – so therefore I’m happy to take the 5/6 on offer with BetFred that this tie follows that familiar pattern.
One man who will be available for selection is Robert Lewandowski and as much as I have tried to avoid the obvious when writing these pieces – this time around I can’t resist.
The goal-scoring freak of nature has found the net at least once in his last eight UCL appearances and is looking to become the first player in competition history to net in nine straight matches on more than one occasion.
The Polish hitman is arguably one of the best players in the world right now, but certainly one of the most lethal strikers, scoring his 14th goal in 12 matches during Friday's defeat, showing that even when Bayern don't produce, he still does.
Having bagged a brace in the opening two fixtures in this group, including in the reverse at the Allianz Arena, Lewandowski “missed out” with just a solitary strike in Lisbon, but made up for that to make it eight goals in four group games by smashing a hat-trick on MD4.
He will get chances tonight and I am taking the 15/8 from Betfair that he scores two or more goals again for an incredible fourth time this campaign.
Barcelona v Benfica | Tuesday 23rd November 2021, 20:00
Former playing legend Xavi has returned to Camp Nou and although he started his reign as head coach with a win, time will tell if he will be the Catalan giant’s managerial saviour.
If the attendance of 74,418 is anything to go by, some 30,000 up on their La Liga average to date this season, we should see a bumper, partisan and expectant turn out for a clash where a win for the Blaugrana would seal progression to the knockout stages of this competition – anything less and a daunting trip to the machine that is Bayern Munich awaits on MD6, not the venue you would choose when needing a positive result.
Although Barce emerged victorious from their derby dual with Espanyol on Saturday evening, they were far from convincing, needing a Memphis Depay penalty to scrape a narrow 1-0 win and when looking at non-penalty xG via fbref.com they only managed a total of 0.7, whilst their visitors actually eclipsed that with 1.0 npxG.
If Xavi were in any doubt that the side, he is taking over isn’t very good, certainly a pale imitation of the sides to have graced Camp Nou in the not-too-distant past, then I’m sure his debut appearance in the dugout made it pretty clear.
We profited from the pricing when these two met on MD2 and I’m more than willing to take on the skinny quotes for a Barcelona win here – especially with the aid of the Asian Handicap which means we can side with Benfica and receive +0.75 start. In essence a draw or better returns us a full win, a defeat by one goal gets us half our stake back – it would take a defeat by two or more goals for us to lose – at odds against (53/50 with Bet 365) this looks well worth a play.
Benfica are certainly no mugs, having only lost three times this season and two of those were to Bayern Munich, with the score line on both occasions maybe being just a little harsh on the Eagles.
Having won the reverse 3-0, Barcelona should hold little fear for the visitors especially with the home side looking a little light in attack, likely to be missing Sergio Aguero, Ansu Fati, Martin Braithwaite and Ousmane Dembele, added to the fact only Malmo have managed fewer shots on target (4) than the Catalan’s six in the UCL this term.
The first goal could be crucial here as the side scoring it has only gone on to lose once in Barcelona's 17 competitive matches so far this season.
Darwin Nunez was the man who provided the opener after just three minutes in the reverse clash at Estádio da Luz, going on to add a second from the penalty spot after the break.
The 22-Year-Old Uruguayan impressed against Bayern in Lisbon in a performance that deserved a goal, but he did make a scoring contribution from the bench with an excellent 26-minute cameo in MD4.
Nunez has eight goals in 14 appearances for his club this season, including two in his last three and having already enjoyed success against Barcelona we should expect his confidence to be high – in a game his side will be looking to win the odds of 27/10 for him to score with Unibet look very appealing.
Lille v Salzburg | Tuesday 23rd November 2021, 20:00
Group G is wide open with all four teams still able to qualify – and equally all four still able to finish bottom and miss out on extending their European commitments.
As things currently stand the top two collide at Stade Pierre-Mauroy in what has the making of being an extremely exciting clash.
There is a possibility that leading the group after four games with seven points Salzburg would travel to France looking to consolidate that position but I’m not sure Matthias Jaissle’s have it in them to do it that way.
Especially when visiting a Lille side without a win in five Ligue 1 games and who only secured their first three points of the group stages on the last match day, their only victory of their last seven competitive fixtures – their difficulty in getting over the line highlighted by having to settle for a draw in Monaco at the weekend despite taking a 2-0 lead after just nine minutes, playing and conceding against 10 men for the final 12.
Including the qualifying round, Salzburg have found the net in all three UCL away days so far, and there have been over 2.5 goals in 12 of their last 14 UCL fixtures, exactly sharing 52 goals at an average of 3.71 per game, while Lille have kept just four clean sheets in 19 competitive games so far this season.
I was expecting far shorter odds for another goal fest here but am more than happy to take the 4/5 available with Betfair for over 2.5 goals.
For my second selection in this tie, I was drawn to the corner markets.
With the line set very low (9 Asian) it was tempting to take that on, especially in a game we are expecting to be open and entertaining.
However, seeing the respective sides performance in this discipline in this competition I was drawn to the Most Corners market and am siding with Salzburg at odds of 5/4 with Sky Bet.
Including the qualifier with Brondby, the Austrian champions have had six UCL fixtures so far and won the corner count in five of them – by 9, 2, 2, 6 & 3 with a tied count in that second leg in Denmark with a first leg advantage in the bag and the tie effectively over after taking a 2-0 lead inside 10 minutes.
Lille have lost their last three corner counts in this competition mustering a total of seven flag kicks and only one in their last home game against Sevilla.
Malmo v Zenit | Tuesday 23rd November 2021, 20:00
Zenit have the perfect opportunity to guarantee Europa League football with a win against the UCL whipping boys of Malmo – with the Swedish champions yet to pick up a point, or even score a goal in Group H – and as previously mentioned no team has managed fewer shots on target than their total of four.
Sergei Semak’s side aren’t exactly coming in to this clash hot, having lost six of their last seven Champions League contests – but with that one win being against their opponents here and by a resounding 4-0 the odds of 66/67 with SBK still look generous enough.
The Russian champions do of course still have an outside chance of progressing in this competition but will be reliant on results elsewhere but the incentive is still there for them to inflict more misery on a Malmo side who have only managed three wins from their last nine competitive fixtures at their Eleda Stadion home.
Zenit fine-tuned themselves perfectly at the weekend with a 5-1 thrashing of Nizhny Novgorod, a victory that puts them four points clear at the top of the Russian Premier League, they have now scored 20 goals domestically in their last four games and that includes a 0-0 draw.
Malmo’s record in the UCL group stages is woeful and their flattering 1-0 defeat to Chelsea, in the last match day was their 14th reversal from 16 such ties, with an aggregate score of 5-48!
As shown against the Blues, there is a chance Jon Dahl Tomasson’s side can prove tough to break down and with nine of the 12 goals seen in Zenit’s group H games so far coming in the second half there looks a nice opportunity to side with later goals.
Betfair have the second half to be the half with most goals priced at 11/10 and that looks worth getting onside with the reverse game seeing three of the four goals scored after the half-time interval.
Sevilla v Wolfsburg | Tuesday 23rd November 2021, 20:00
Sevilla were many a shrewd judges' dark horses to go deep in to this year's renewal of the UCL, yet here we are on MD5 and they are yet to record their first win – although with three draws to their name and just four points separating top from bottom in Group G they still are well within reach of progressing to the round of 16.
This game is tough to call for me though – as I, like many others, have expected Los Rojiblancos to have found the winning formula by now.
Julen Lopetegui’s side are third in La Liga, two points off leaders Real Madrid, having lost just one of their opening 13 league, however, needed a late Ivan Rakitic goal to rescue a point against Alaves at the weekend, although having trailed twice in that game it may be counted as a point gained rather than two lost.
They welcome a Wolfsburg side to Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán who are yet to taste defeat under Florian Kohfeldt, a record that they looked unlikely to be bringing in to this tie after falling 2-0 down to Arminia Bielefeld with just over 30 minutes left on the clock.
Two goals in two minutes from Wout Weghorst and Lukas Nmecha pinched a point which up until then had looked unlikely and continued the upturn in form since the departure of Mark van Bommel.
As I mentioned, calling a winner here is an impossible task so instead I am dipping in to a market which has plenty of stats on its side from both clubs and our referee Cüneyt Çakιr.
The Turkish official has awarded six penalties in his eight Super Lig appearances so far this season, including three in his last two appointments, the most recent being this weekend as he pointed to the spot for what turned out to be the match winning only goal as Giresunspor defeated Yeni Malatyaspor 1-0.
The 44-year-old from Istanbul has taken charge of just one UCL game so far this season, in September when Atletico Madrid came from behind to snatch a 96th minute winner – with you guessed it a penalty.
With Sevilla seeing an incredible six penalties from their opening four group games including one in the reverse fixture and Wolfsburg conceding a Bundesliga high four spot kicks, the latest being at the weekend (they have also won two) it is no surprise to see the odds on a penalty being awarded here short – but at a best priced 7/4 with Bet 365, I still make that worth a play.
It’s back to corners for my second selection in this game and having won 11 to Wolfsburg’s one in the reverse fixture at the Volkswagen Arena, it was no surprise to see Sevilla red hot favourites to win that count again with home advantage.
That performance was by no means a one off as Wolves have lost all of the corner matches in this UCL campaign and quite convincingly by 5, 10, 6 & 3, Sevilla on the other hand after taking fewer flag kicks than Salzburg on MD1, have won each of the last three.
With only two games remaining, the Spanish side will have to go all out for the win here and in turn that should lead to plenty of corners for them, the straight match bet is unbackable at 4/11 however the -2 Asian Handicap corners with Bet 365 as you can see from the figures above would have been covered by all of Wolfsburg’s opponents so far and at 4/5 looks a worthy play again.
Young Boys v Atalanta | Tuesday 23rd November 2021, 20:00
After starting their Group F campaign with a bang and defeat of Manchester United, things aren’t looking pretty for Young Boys.
Three successive defeats have followed and it’s now only one win in their last seven games although the 1-1 draw with Grasshoppers and least snapped a losing sequence of three games, all in different competitions, matters have been made worse by what looks like being a lengthy injury list to contend with.
It remains to be seen whether having no club competitive action for 17 days will be a benefit but the Swiss champions will know that Atalanta warmed up ominously for this clash with a 5-2 thrashing of Spezia.
The Italians know this is a massive chance for them, sitting in third place on five points a win will at least draw them level with the top two as they go head-to-head in the east of Spain.
In contrast to the form of their hosts, La Dea made it six games unbeaten with that convincing come from behind weekend win, enhancing their reputation as Italy’s entertainers and in doing so closed the gap on Serie A leaders Napoli to seven points.
With the bit between their teeth, I can see nothing other than a big away win and although the price for a straight Atalanta win is a fraction too short to put forward at 13/17 (SBK), Unibet’s 5/4 on a -1 Asian Handicap, looks very appealing given we lose nothing if they do only win by one goal.
Finally, David Wagner’s have played 10 games now in this season’s UCL – including their qualifying fixtures, with those games producing an evenly split 32 goals at an average of 3.2 per game – 60% seeing over three or more.
As already mentioned, Gian Piero Gasperini’s side have a firm reputation as entertainers and this is backed up by the fact 10 of their last 12 competitive fixtures have seen three or more goals, of those 10 only two featured three goals, four had four, three had five with the weekend game topping the lot with seven!
Sporting Index have the 3 Goal Line set at 9/11 and given that has resulted in a win in eight of Atalanta’s last 12 games it is a line I am very happy to take to have a goal angle in a fixture which looks like we should see plenty.
Best Bets
Dynamo Kiev v Bayern Munich: Bayern HT/FT (5/6 BetFred)
Dynamo Kiev v Bayern Munich: Robert Lewandowski to score 2 goals or more (15/8 Betfair)
Barcelona v Benfica: Benfica +0.5, +1.0 Asian Handicap (53/50 Bet 365)
Barcelona v Benfica: Darwin Nunez to score (27/10 Unibet)
Lille v Salzburg: Over 2.5 goals (4/5 Betfair)
Lille v Salzburg: Salzburg most corners taken (5/4 Sky Bet)
Malmo v Zenit: Zenit to win (66/67 SBK)
Malmo v Zenit: Second Half the half with most goals (11/10 Betfair)
Sevilla v Wolfsburg: A penalty in the match (7/4 Bet 365)
Sevilla v Wolfsburg: Sevilla -2 Asian Handicap Corners (4/5 Bet 365)
Young Boys v Atalanta: Atalanta -1 Asian Handicap (5/4 Unibet)
Young Boys v Atalanta: Over 3.0 Goal Line (9/11 Sporting Index)
