FOOTBALL LEAGUE expert Tom Love (@TomLove_18) oversees Tuesday night's EFL play-off semi-final first leg between Newport and Forest Green.
Newport vs Forest Green | Tuesday 18th May 2021, 20:15 | Sky Sports
- Newport have won 13/23 home games this season.
- Newport have seen under 3.5 goals in 89% of league games this season.
- Forest Green have seen under 3.5 goals in 80% of league games this season.
The first of the league two play-off fixtures gets underway two days before the second, strangely. Newport County were play off finalists just two years ago but lost out by a narrow margin to Tranmere Rovers and there’s potential for those two to meet yet again this season should both progress.
Michael Flynn has done a sterling job at Rodney Parade, he’s had to be savvy in the transfer market, often relying on quality loan captures but it’s the belief that he instills in his players that’s so impressive. They’ve often been a tough side to break down under Flynn, a 3-5-2 formation which slots into a back 5 out of possession lays the foundation for this side, every player knows their job to a tee.
The Exiles come into the play offs on the back of a 5 game unbeaten run and they have a fully fit squad as Forest Green make the trip to South Wales. FGR have had a topsy-turvy campaign but secured a play-off berth on final day with a strong 3-0 victory against Oldham. They could be without three of their key players here though. Midfielder Ebou Adams is suspended whilst influential front-man Jamille Matt and creative fulcrum Nicky Cadden are doubtful.
The Nailsworth-based side cut ties with Mark Cooper a few months ago and ultimately it has proved to be the correct decision with Jimmy Ball getting a bit more out of the squad. I don’t think they’ll be distraught with a narrow loss, as long as they’re still in the tie for the second leg where they can welcome back their main men.
Goals have been at a premium in Newport games, especially on the Rodney Parade pitch which has been a struggle to play on again this term. Newport look a fair price but we can get 2/1 on them to win and under 3.5 goals and that looks a worthy boost in price, especially with this being a first leg.
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Newport vs Forest Green – Newport to win and Under 3.5 Goals (2/1 Betway)
