SOUTHAMPTON host Crystal Palace on Tuesday night . Brett Curtis (@Brett_Curtis92) is on-hand to deliver his favourite fancies.
Southampton vs Crystal Palace | Tuesday 11th May 2021, 20:15 | Sky Sports
Southampton entertain Crystal Palace in the Premier League on Tuesday in a 8:15pm kick-off at St Mary’s Stadium.
Fulham’s 2-0 loss at home to Burnley on Monday has essentially rendered this match a dead rubber, with three teams relegated with three matches remaining for the first time in PL history.
Southampton have slipped to 17th in the table, which is astonishing given that they were in the top-four of the league as recently as December. Eight points from their last 17 games is the worst record in the division during that timeframe.
Palace, meanwhile, appear to be treading water until the summer, when manager Roy Hodgson and several first-team players’ contracts are set to expire.
Given the lack of significance attached to this match, my first thought was to oppose cards, especially with Andy Madley officiating.
The 37-year-old has averaged only 2.50 cards per game in the PL this season, and he has shown fewer than four cards in each of his last seven matches.
Interestingly, six of those seven matches also saw Madley brandish fewer than three, while Palace’s last five matches (and 10 of their last 12) have all fallen below this mark, too. Five of Southampton’s last seven have also seen fewer than three cards shown.
As such, I make evens (Sky Bet) a more than fair price for Under 30 Booking Points to land.
End of season matches tend to see more goals scored, and I do fancy both teams to bag here. Southampton have only failed to score in three of their 16 home matches this season, while Palace’s clean sheet at Sheffield United on Saturday was only their second on the road all campaign.
Likewise, Southampton’s clean sheet against Sheff Utd in March was the only time their defence has not been breached in their last 17 matches, with only Manchester City keeping Palace out in the Eagles’ last seven matches (which has included them scoring against Chelsea, Leicester, Everton and Tottenham, who all have considerably better defensive records than Southampton).
BTTS is best priced at 5/6 (Sport Nation), so to get a bit more juice we’ll head to bet365’s Bet Builder. Like Palace’s last five matches, Madley and Southampton’s last seven matches have both seen fewer than four cards shown, so we’ll combine this with BTTS.
Moreover, Southampton have earned 3+ corners in 16 of their last 17 matches (with the one exception being when they were reduced to 10 men against Leicester for the vast majority of the game). Adding this to Under 4 Cards and BTTS gives us a nice 6/4 shot.
I can envisage there being a fair amount of tackles in this match given that both sides like to transition quickly.
Jannik Vestergaard has certainly been racking them up lately, with the Saints defender landing 2+ in each of his last seven starts (astonishingly, even when he was sent off after 10 mins against Leicester!).
Kyle Walker-Peters, meanwhile, has hit 3+ in four of his last five, with both players priced at 8/13 (Sky Bet and bet365 respectively) to land these marks again.
Should Palace line up similarly to how they did at Bramall Lane at the weekend, prolific dribblers Eberechi Eze and Wilfried Zaha would largely be in Vestergaard and Walker-Peters’ zones respectively, so I’d expect these lines to land.
Personally, though, they’re a bit short for me to back in an at times unpredictable market, so I’ll instead look to request a few bets once the line-ups are announced. I’d be looking towards whoever starts at left-back for Palace out of Tyrick Mitchell or Patrick van Aanholt to potentially forge a trio with the Saints pair.
There are a couple already on Sky Bet’s site which caught my eye. Walker-Peters and Mitchell both made six tackles each in the reverse fixture, so 20/1 (Sky Bet) for the pair to make 10+ tackles combined looks a very nice price.
Likewise, Vestergaard and van Aanholt to make 5+ combined at 7/4 is decent given that van Aanholt has hit 2+ in seven of his last eight starts. It all depends on which left-back Hodgson goes with from the start.
Best Bets
Southampton vs Crystal Palace – Under 30 Booking Points (1/1 Sky Bet)
Southampton vs Crystal Palace – Both Teams To Score, Under 4 Cards and Over 2 Southampton Corners (6/4 Bet365)
Southampton vs Crystal Palace – Kyle Walker-Peters and Tyrick Mitchell to make 10+ tackles combined (20/1 Sky Bet) or Jannik Vestergaard and Patrick van Aanholt to make 5+ tackles combined (7/4 Sky Bet)
