ALEX JONES (@AlexJ0nes9) analyses the odds as Spurs travel to Leeds in the Premier League on Saturday.
Leeds vs Tottenham | Saturday 8th May 2021, 12:30 | BT Sport
Ryan Mason finally let Tottenham loose last weekend and let them showcase their attacking flair as they won 4-0 against Sheffield United.
They travel to Yorkshire to face a Leeds side who have drawn 5/5 games against the other ‘Big 6’ teams at Elland Road this season. All of these five games finished either 0-0 or 1-1. Only Aston Villa have left Leeds with all three points in their last 7 home games.
We should be in for an entertaining game this Saturday lunch time, with Mason having no reason to change his starting XI, and Marcelo Bielsa’s Leeds more often than not producing entertainment.
We have the league’s youngest ever manager in Ryan Mason against one of the most respected managers in the game in Bielsa. The latter’s standards are so high that he will want a top half finish for Leeds, which is doable. He won’t let them take their foot off the gas in any of their remaining games.
Spurs look too short to my eye at 21/20 to be victorious here. Considering none of the Big 6 have won at Leeds’ stomping ground, I think the bookies have overreacted to Tottenham’s latest hammering against Sheffield united.
I think there is value in the Draw here – best priced at 29/10 with Bet365. Spurs have drawn their last two games on the road 2-2, and I think this could be all square come 90 minutes.
Leeds’ games have been very good for match shots this season, due to their style of play and the attacking intent they play with. 21/34 (62%) of Leeds games have seen 26+ match shots which is where Betfair’s line starts at 1/1.
Only 12/34 (35%) of Spurs games have seen a winning bet here but they were under the dour Jose Mourinho for the large part. Considering Mason’s approach here should be more of the same, and with Bielsa’s philosophy always providing attacking threat, I think this bet will land comfortably.
6/34 Leeds games have seen 35+ shots. Only one Spurs game this season has hit this line of 35+. But that game came at home against… you guessed it, Leeds.
Finally, with Michael Oliver in charge there is always the propensity for a penalty to be given. The experienced referee has pointed to the spot 17 times in just 25 games. He has given multiple penalties in 6/25 (24%) games.
His two most recent Spurs games have seen him give a penalty against them both times, against Arsenal and Everton, whereas he has given 3 penalties in 3 Leeds games this term.
Leeds have conceded the most penalties in the division this season (10), with Spurs sitting third most conceded with 8. But between the two sides there has been 8 awarded penalties, and 100% have been scored. A penalty scored is best price 21/10 at Betfair.
Harry Kane has scored 4/4 penalties this season, and if on the pitch is always the penalty taker. He is 21/4 with BetVictor to notch from 12 yards.
I believe Leeds’ penalty taker will be Patrick Bamford. He mentioned on the club’s official podcast in January that when Mateusz Klich misses, he steps up next. Klich stepped up against West Ham earlier on in the season, missed but scored a retake as Lukas Fabianski was off his line. So, after Klich’s miss, it’s now all on Bamford before he misses, then it switches again. Bamford took the next penalty against Burnley.
Bamford is 13/1 to score a penalty, but Klich is 17/2. BetVictor have missed this and have got their pricing wrong. If you want to take a single, there is serious juice in that Bamford price. Instead of plumping for both teams to score a penalty at 32/1, I will take the two penalty takers to score them.
Harry Kane and Patrick Bamford both to score a penalty, formed in BetVictor’s Bet Builder, is a whopping 92/1.
Best Bets
Leeds vs Tottenham – Draw (29/10 Bet365)
Leeds vs Tottenham – 26+ match shots (1/1 Betfair)
Leeds vs Tottenham – A penalty scored (21/10 Betfair)
Leeds vs Tottenham – Harry Kane to score a penalty and Patrick Bamford to score a penalty (92/1 BetVictor)
