ARSENAL take on Liverpool in Saturday night's Premier League showdown. Tom Love (@TomLove_18) shares his betting thoughts.
Arsenal vs Tottenham | Saturday 3rd April March 2021, 20:00 | Sky Sports
An improving Arsenal side host a Liverpool team that have largely dropped off a cliff this year. Usually so reliable on their strong home form, the Reds have actually turned that trend on its head, struggling badly at Anfield but proving more comfortable on the road.
I can see a lot of people looking at the 5/4 on Jurgen Klopp’s men and being tempted in but the hosts have seen a genuine upturn in performances and results the last few months.
Arsenal had a poor start to the season on the data side of things, struggling to create much at all but if you take the last 16 games they actually rank 5th in the league for xG ratio, with an encouraging 58% share. What’s more, the North Londoners have lost just twice in their last 25 home matches against Liverpool, a surprising stat.
Martin Odegaard has been an inspired addition, providing that link between the lines and showing flashes of creativity that was sorely lacking in the first half of the season for the Gunners. Mikel Arteta will have to potentially do without Bukayo Saka and Emile Smith-Rowe here though which could leave them light.
That could see Nicolas Pepe possibly come in for a start, there still plenty of options for Arteta with Pierre Emerick Aubameyang and Willian able to play wide.
Diogo Jota returning to fitness has been a big plus point for Liverpool, he was the difference maker against Wolves and takes the burden off a front three that haven’t really got going this season. Playing with centre halves at the back over midfielders has worked well for them, playing on the front foot will suit them more and controlling the midfield.
Any result wouldn’t really surprise me here and the match odds looks fair enough. Instead I’ll head to the Betbuilder market with Bet365 and combine Under 5 Goals, Under 3 Arsenal Cards and Under 3 Liverpool Card that pays 20/23.
Only 6/48 combined games involving these two have seen more than 4 goals and with Arteta’s more pragmatic approach in the big games I’m not expecting a shootout.
The referee is a card backers worse nightmare in Martin Atkinson. The experienced whistleblower is notorious for letting the game flow and keeping his cards in his pocket, averaging just 2.4 cards per game this season.
Not once has he given 5 or more cards either. Arsenal have a 76% strike rate for under 3 team cards, which includes each of their last 7 at home. Liverpool on the other hand have a 93% strike rate for under 3 cards.
Best Bets
Arsenal vs Liverpool – Under 5 Goals, Under 3 Arsenal Cards and Under 3 Liverpool Cards (20/23 Bet365)
