ALEX JONES (@AlexJ0nes9) analyses the odds as Newcastle entertain Tottenham in the Premier League on Sunday.
Newcastle vs Tottenham | Sunday 4th April 2021, 14:05 | Sky Sports
Tottenham travel to the north-east to take on relegation-threatened Newcastle United on Super Sunday.
The reverse fixture was all Spurs who dominated the game, having 23 shots (12 on target) but failed to win the game as it ended 1-1. It took a farcical VAR call late on to award Newcastle a penalty.
Newcastle will undoubtedly set up to stay in the game for as long as they can, whereas Tottenham’s inconsistency looks to have squandered Champions League hopes.
I’m expecting a scrappy affair and will dive into the cards market here and backing Both Teams Over 1 Card at 11/5 with Bet365.
Both sides sit within the top five of the fouled-per-game charts with the visitors sitting second being felled 12.6 times a game, with Newcastle at 11.4. Newcastle are one of the most ill-disciplined teams in the topflight this season, fourth to be exact, whilst Tottenham make the 4th most fouls themselves, at 12pg.
If we take their card-per-game averages at 1.86 and 1.52 respectively, we get a card expectancy of 3.38. The likelihood of cards increases with Craig Pawson being named as the official. He has shown 4+ cards in 9/16 Premier League games this season and 5+ cards in 5/16. He’s also given Both Teams Over 1 Card in 5/16.
Since the start of the 2018/19 season, Pawson’s games overseeing Spurs have yielded very high card counts. He has taken charge of 9 Tottenham games in that time and his card record is as follows:
5, 4, 4, 5, 6 (2R), 7, 4, 4, 7.
- 4+ cards in 9/9
- 5+ cards in 5/9
- 7+ cards in 3/9
The Sheffield born whistle-blower has also given Both Teams Over 1 Card in his last 4 games overseeing Spurs, and in 7 of his last 9 games over this sequence. His two games refereeing them this season saw Both Teams Over 1 Card.
The recent head-to-heads between the two teams have also seen plenty of bookings. Dating back to October 2014, this selection has won in 9 of the last 11 games. It has won in the last five encounters played at St James’ Park.
The reverse fixture back at the start of the season saw five yellow cards, but with Newcastle getting four of them. Pawson has given Newcastle 6Y and 1R in his three Toon games this campaign.
It is also worth adding Pawson sits at 0.8 in the fouls per tackle table (2nd best in league). This is a great statistic that, long story short, indicates Pawson isn’t a massive fan of tackles flying in, and more often than not gives a foul rather than letting play flow for 50/50 challenges.
In the recent head-to-head history this has won in 82% of the sample size of 11 games.
In Pawson’s recent history of overseeing Spurs since the 18/19 season, it has won in 78% of games.
Yet odds of 11/5 (3.2) at Bet365 imply just a 31% chance of a winning bet. An 11/5 poke, that has landed in 9 of the last 11 games between the sides, in 19 games involving these teams this season, and a decent referee in charge, looks too good to turn down.
Best Bets
Newcastle vs Tottenham – Both Teams Over 1 Card (11/5 Bet365)
