ALEX JONES (@AlexJ0nes9) analyses the odds as Fulham entertain Man City in the Premier League on Sunday.
Fulham vs Manchester City | Saturday 13th March 2021, 20:00 | BT Sport
Manchester City are on the road again after four consecutive home games in the Premier League. They travel to London to face Fulham, which looking at the table looks a nailed on three points for City but Fulham’s fortunes have really changed of late.
Fulham won at Anfield last weekend, and while that is a feat five other teams have also managed in 2021, they made Liverpool look like a mid-table team, not the Champions. They limited them to absolute scraps and the centre-back partnership of Tosin Adarabioyo and Joachim Andersen looked immense.
I’d expect Fulham to limit City to a lot less than Southampton did on Wednesday given their respective styles. Spurs, Chelsea and Man United have all only won by the one goal at Craven Cottage. Given the chance of City professionally seeing out the game if they were to a goal or two up, I fancy the Unders in this one.
Back Under 2.5 Goals at 11/10 with Bet365
The bookies are massively favouring the overs in this game and that’s something I’m happy to oppose. In my view, the only reason this is odds-against is due to the sheer difference in quality in which there is always the potential for City to run riot, like in midweek against Southampton. The line isn’t giving Fulham’s defence enough respect, in my opinion.
Fulham will likely sit very deep, which has been their outlet for a lot of these big games. hence why 20/28 Fulham games have seen Under 2.5 Goals. Since Fulham’s awful first couple of home games, 9/11 at Craven Cottage have seen Under 2.5 land. Only 2 of their last 18, home and away, have seen three or more goals.
On the other hand, perhaps surprisingly only 12/29 City games have also seen Overs cop, meaning 59% of City games have seen this cop. The reverse fixture was a 2-0 job for the Blue Moon but it must be reiterated that one of these was a penalty, and Fulham kept City to a rather low Expected Goals tally for City’s standards.
The bookies have the 1-0 and 2-0 score lines the most probable scenarios at Craven Cottage and I can certainly agree with that. That would see Under 2.5 come in and I’m having a good wager on Under 2.5 goals given I believe it should be odds-on, not odds-against.
Back Tosin Adarabioyo 1+ Shots at 15/8 PokerStars
Tosin Adarabioyo is a great aerial threat who Fulham may well target here to breach the ever-impressive City defence. He has 6 shots in his last 8 appearances.
Overall, Tosin has had an attempt at goal in 13/23 starts and 6/12 at Craven Cottage, including home games against Spurs, Leicester, Liverpool and Man United. City will likely limit Fulham to only 6 or 7 shots here and a set-piece could be where they come from.
Tosin had a shot in the reverse fixture and the ex-City defender will be keen to make his mark against the Blue Moon. 15/8 at PokerStars for just one attempt is simply too long.
Best Bets
Fulham vs Manchester City – Under 2.5 Goals (11/10 Bet365)
Fulham vs Manchester City – Tosin Adarabioyo 1+ shots (15/8 PokerStars)
