LIVERPOOL take on Chelsea in Thursday night's Premier League showdown. Tom Love (@TomLove_18) shares his betting thoughts.
Liverpool vs Chelsea | Sunday 28th February 2021, 20:15 | Sky Sports
The match up of the midweek comes at Anfield on Thursday night between two teams that will be hell-bent on finishing in the top FOUR this season. Both will have had title aspirations before the season but neither have been able to keep up with the relentless Manchester City.
Chelsea have seen an upturn in performances and results since Thomas Tuchel came into the club, notably at the back. The Blues haven’t conceded many under him and they kept another clean sheet against Manchester United at the weekend.
They’ll fancy their chances of a win at Anfield, which is no longer a fortress for Liverpool who have lost their last 4 on the spin at home. It’s an incredible turnaround from their unbeaten home record that stretched back to 2017 and you do wonder about a potential mental block for the squad.
You can’t be too critical of Jurgen Klopp and his side though. They’ve had a mammoth few seasons playing at an extremely high intensity, there was always going to be a drop off. It’s now a case of securing Champions League football for next season for the Reds.
As far as the betting markets go, I’m going to head to the Card Asian Handicap market for one play.
Liverpool have tended to be a side who are well disciplined and usually pick up less cards than their opponents. That’s a theory that’s not checked out in recent times though, the Merseyside club have picked up more cards than their opponents in 9 of their last 11 league games, including their last 5 home games. Only West Ham in that run of 11 games have picked up more cards than the Reds.
Chelsea, on the other hand, have been seeing extremely low card counts under Thomas Tuchel. They’ve set to pick up 2 or more cards in their league games and have seen just 4 cards under his tenure.
With that all in mind, I’m surprised the hosts are the outsiders on the Asian Card lines at 2.100 or 11/10. Here we’d be paid out if Liverpool have more cards than Chelsea but if they pick up an equal amount of cards our stakes will be refunded.
This seems like the worst season for entertaining games between the big boys, and that’s reflected in the results. There’s been plenty of goalless games too and I’m happy to oppose goals again here with Under 2.5 available at an attractive even-money. It’s copped in pretty much all Chelsea games under Tuchel, whilst Anfield has seen goals thin on the ground of late with 5 of the last 6 going unders.
I can’t ignore the 10/1 on No Goalscorer here too. It’s landed four times already for Chelsea this season, three of which were against big six opposition. Liverpool’s last two draws have both been 0-0 as well.
Backing no goalscorer instead of 0-0 means we will also get paid out if the only goal is an own goal.
Best Bets
Liverpool vs Chelsea – Under 2.5 Goals (11/10 Betfair)
Liverpool vs Chelsea – No Goalscorer (11/1 Bet365)
Liverpool vs Chelsea – Liverpool 0.0 Asian Handicap Cards (11/10 Bet365)
