ALEX JONES (@AlexJ0nes9) analyses the odds as Newcastle entertain Leicester in the Premier League on Sunday.
Newcastle vs Leicester | Sunday 3rd January 2021, 14:15 | Sky Sports
Leicester travel to the North East to face Newcastle with both teams going into the game off the back of decent draws.Newcastle will have been delighted to keep a clean sheet against the champions Liverpool, whilst Leicester salvaged a late draw at Crystal Palace on Monday.
Leicester have won 9 of the last 11 head-to-heads in all competitions, and Newcastle haven’t beaten The Foxes on home soil since 2014, when under Alan Pardew.
Leicester came from a goal down to earn a hard-fought point against Crystal Palace last Monday. Brendan Rodgers chose to rest many of his key players for that one and with no Jamie Vardy on the pitch, a crucial penalty in the first half was given to Kelechi Iheanacho.
The Nigerian stepped up and missed and maybe with Jamie Vardy behind that kick Leicester could have gone away from the capital with three points.
That was their 10th penalty kick of the campaign, in just 16 games, that is the quickest a team has reached that feat in 16 games since Blackburn Rovers did so in 1994/95. In fact, penalties have made up 30.2% of Leicester’s Expected Goals (xG) total so far this campaign which is just madness.
Getting Leicester shots onside looks like a good way to go in what is a tight game to call betting -wise. Bet365 have Harvey Barnes priced at 1/1 (2.0) for Over 2.5 Shots. It’s a number he has hit in 4/7 away games, with his shot per game average rising from 1.4 at home to 3.0 away from the King Power.
The only away games Barnes failed to land this bet is in three games against the so-called Big Six – Man City, Arsenal and Liverpool. His 20 shots in 7 away league games makes him the highest shot taker away from home for The Foxes.
Barnes managed 6 against Crystal Palace last Monday and usually manages more shots when James Maddison does not play, who is facing a late fitness test.
I’m also happy to add Jamie Vardy to hit the target 2 or more times. He has done so in 4/6 away league starts, and his shots are often accurate on target. He hit 2 in the fixture he played last season and Iheanacho was the striker when they won 3-0 at St James’ Park last season and he also had 2.
Leicester’s attackers are up against a Newcastle side conceding 15.3 shots per game, second-highest behind West Brom. They have conceded 11 or more shots in all but one Premier League outing this season.
Best Bets
Newcastle vs Leicester – Harvey Barnes Over 2.5 Shots (1/1 Bet365)
Newcastle vs Leicester – Jamie Vardy Over 1.5 Shots o-Target (11/10 Bet365)
