MAN UTD travel to Leicester for Boxing Day's curtain-raiser and Ben Ragg (@Punters_Corner_) is on-hand to deliver his favourite fancies.
Leicester vs Manchester United | Saturday 26th December 2020, 12:30 | BT Sport
Game one of Boxing Day sees second versus third-place as Leicester host Manchester United. To the surprise of most, Leicester will start Boxing Day in second for the second year running.
This Premier League season has been one like no other and this match is the battle of the two best away performers. The Red Devils away form has been superb winning six out of six on the road. Likewise, Leicester’s away form has been good winning six out of seven, with the only away loss to league leaders Liverpool.
It’s a different story for these two teams at home. Leicester have won just 3 out of 7 at home this season and United just 2. United’s 100% away form and Leicester’s poor home form points towards a United win which is currently priced at 11/8. However, Leicester have put in some good performances against top teams in recent years and Jamie Vardy will pose a big threat as he always does against big teams.
United have won all six of their away games from behind this season which is a crazy stat and has brought punters some high-priced winners in recent weeks. United are 9/1 to do it again but against this Leicester side I don’t see them being able to do it again.
Leicester showed last week against Tottenham that they can defend well, and they put in a brilliant defensive performance to come away with a clean sheet and 2-0 win.
Albrighton and Justin managed to keep Son quiet for 90 minutes whilst the return of Jonny Evans was key for tightening up the defence.
The first angle I like for this game is based around United’s two centre backs and Leicester’s problems from defending set pieces. Leicester have conceded 7 goals from set pieces this season – only Leeds have conceded more. They also rank second for most shots conceded from set pieces – conceding 3.71 pg.
On the other hand, the Red Devils have managed a league-high 3.77 shots from set pieces per game. This is asking for me to look at United’s centre backs.
The first one is Harry Maguire. Maguire has managed more headed shots than any other defender this season with 13 in 13 games. The next highest is Vestergaard with 9. He has also hit 5 shots on target this season. Kurt Zouma is the only centre back with more. So the first angle `I like in this game is Maguire to have a headed shot on target priced at an appealing 11/2 with Betfair/Paddypower.
The second bet I like is one I had success with last week and is still overpriced this week and it is Lindelöf to have a shot priced at 11/5. Lindelöf has managed 3 shots in his last 3 matches and will be up for all free kicks and corners.
This bet is just for him to have a shot and I am sure he will be putting himself about after getting on the scoresheet last weekend. This looks a really big price considering the amount of shots Leicester have been conceding from set pieces.
Mike Dean is in charge of this one and given his recent record I couldn’t help but dip into the card market. With Aaron Wan-Bissaka a doubt for this one, Axel Tuanzebe is likely to deputise at right-back like he did in the week vs Everton.
He picked up a card in that match and also picked up 3 in the Champions League despite only starting 2 matches. He will be up against Harvey Barnes or James Maddison both of which have caused problems for defenders and drawn plenty of cards too. Tuanzebe is currently priced at 5/1 for a card with Skybet which looks too big to me considering who he is up against and with Mike Dean referee.
Best Bets
Leicester vs Manchester United – Harry Maguire 1+ headed shot-on-target (11/2 Betfair)
Leicester vs Manchester United – Victor Lindelof 1+ shot (11/5 Betfair)
Leicester vs Manchester United – Axel Tuanzebe to be carded (5/1 SkyBet)
