ALEX JONES (@AlexJ0nes9) analyses the odds as Burnley entertain Wolves in the Premier League on Monday evening.
Burnley vs Wolves | Monday 21st December 2020, 17:30 | Sky Sports
Burnley welcome Wolves to Turf Moor on Monday evening looking to continue their good run of form. Barring their demolition at Manchester City, Burnley are unbeaten in the five other games in their last six and have improved despite a sluggish start.
Wolves travel in full confidence after a last-minute winner against title-hopefuls Chelsea. That result was much needed for a Wolves side who have struggled to adapt to life without their main man Raul Jimenez after his awful injury. That win ended a run of two straight defeats and they will fancy their chances come Monday.
Burnley’s problems lie at the top end of the pitch as their six goals remains the lowest tally in all of England’s top four divisions. Dyche’s philosophy has always been that if you keep the ball out of your net at one end, you have a higher chance of winning.
That is of course true and has been evident in recent wins over Crystal Palace and Arsenal. Their ability to prevent Aston Villa from scoring, despite 27 shots at Nick Pope’s goal, is taking their desire for a clean sheet to the next level.
That frustration for Burnley’s opponents often leads to pop shots. A lack of patience when trying to break down such a low defensive block can lead to shots outside the area and punts into the box for strikers to get on the end of.
I like the Wolves shot line with SkyBet. You can get 4/5 on 12+ and 5/4 on 13+ shots.
- Burnley have faced 13+ shots in 9/12 in the league this season.
- In all of their last seven.
- Burnley concede 14.6 shots-per-game.
Whilst Wolves have only hit 12 or more in 6/13, they have been one short of that mark in three games, and I believe the state of the game will see them hit these numbers. Burnley will look to frustrate Wolves and take their chance when it comes, whether that be off a set piece or counterattack.
Wolves have hit 15, 17 and 14 shots in the last three meetings between the sides. If the game plays out how I expect and Wolves don’t take an early lead, we should get a run for our money.
I also see both sides being happy with a point going into the hectic Christmas schedule. We have to remember these sides played again in midweek and will pay again on Boxing Day.
All of the last six head-to-head meetings have seen under 2.5 goals cop between these two, with four of these seeing the match end in a draw. Two of the last three played out at Turf Moor have seen the 1-1 correct score land.
In the last six H2H, no side has won away from home, and it’s hard to see either manager being disappointed with a point.
We can back the 1-1 score line with Bet365 at 6/1 knowing full well that Bet365 will refund our stake if the match ends 0-0, as per their ‘Bore Draw’ offer.
Best Bets
Burnley vs Wolves – Wolves 12+ shots (4/5 SkyBet)
Burnley vs Wolves – Wolves 13+ shots (5/4 SkyBet)
Burnley vs Wolves – 1-1 Correct Score (6/1 Bet365)
